Perspective from the 19th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
It was not a surprise when Democrat Tina Kotek won a second term in the governor’s chair in Oregon.
She won all of urban Oregon and there was not much her Republican challenger Christine Drazan could do about it.
Lurking behind the urban-rural split was President Donald Trump. Drazan had to run against him and, given that challenge, she had a hill too steep to climb.
In a solid story, here is the way the Oregonian newspaper described Kotek’s victory:
- Her path to victory is a familiar one: Rack up big margins in the state’s bluest Democrat counties and ride the wave to Mahonia Hall.
- But she’s also outperformed her predecessors in some purple counties.
- Since at least 2010, seven counties have been key to Democrats running for governor. In each race, the Democrat has built a winning vote margin in Multnomah, Washington, Lane, Benton, Lincoln, and Hood River counties. And in all but the 2014 contest, Clatsop County also has skewed to Democrats.
- It all starts with Multnomah County, Oregon’s most populous and most Democrat jurisdiction. In 2022, for example, Kotek built a lead of nearly 194,000 votes in Multnomah County alone, fueled by progressive Portlanders. That margin was nearly enough to wipe out all the gains that Drazan made in the 29 counties she won. Drazan built an edge of just under 219,000 in those counties.
- In this year’s rematch, preliminary returns tracking 1.6 million votes show much the same. As of Thursday morning, Kotek built up a lead of more than 158,000 votes in Multnomah County. In all the counties where Drazan was winning, her edge was just over 152,000.
- Put another way: Multnomah County alone completely offset every gain Drazan made across Oregon.
- And once again, Kotek — just like the Democrats before her — was also winning six other reliably Democrat counties. Since 2018, Washington County has become the second-biggest driver of net gains for Democrats and this year Kotek was up nearly 49,000 votes there.
Then, the Oregonian adds this:
“What’s most interesting in the partial returns: Kotek is also winning two other counties so far.
“Kotek was up by more than 5,000 votes in Deschutes County, home to Bend. Four years ago, Drazan won the county by about 3,600 votes.
“Kotek was also currently winning Clackamas County by about 1,200 votes. Four years ago, Drazan won the metro-area suburban county by nearly 10,000 votes.”
One of my sources in Central Oregon says the demography of Deschutes County has changed rapidly in the last 10 years or so. So much so that it appears a Republican can no longer be counted on to win there.
So, overall, Oregon is still experiencing the urban/rural divide. A Republican such as Drazan does well in rural Oregon. A Democrat such as Kotek offsets those numbers, and then some, in urban Oregon.
And, what’s likely is this: The urban-rural divide will still exist in Salem as Kotek and legislators return to the Capitol after the first of the year to decide about new laws.
Urban Oregonians will still be happy in control from the Governor’s Office to the House and Senate.
Rural Oregonian will still be unhappy in the minority everywhere.
