Perspective from the 19th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
To illustrate uncertainty, consider this rundown:
- In the 2025 legislative session in Oregon, Democrats passed a transportation funding measure, including a gas tax increase, without any Republican support.
- Then, Republicans, who contend they were left out of the process to produce the measure, said they would seek to refer the measure to the ballot.
- Led by Republican State Senator Bruce Starr and Republican State Representative Ed Diehl, they succeeded quickly, even without a huge war chest to fund the signature collection effort – and such a war chest usually is necessary to qualify for the ballot.
- Then, Governor Tina Kotek, who led the effort to pass the transportation funding measure in the first place, announced that she would ask the Legislature, during its short session in February, to repeal the measure.
- Then, an old State Attorney General’s opinion – it dates to 1935 – was unveiled. It said, “no” — once a referendum qualifies for the ballot, public officials cannot pull it off.
- And then, another wrinkle. Various experts said they weren’t sure the 1935 opinion was still valid.
There.
Understand?
Uncertainty.
Here’s how Senate Republicans described the issue:
“A 1935 Oregon Attorney General opinion confirms that once Oregonians
invoke their constitutional right to referendum, the Legislature has no authority to repeal the measure before voters have their say.
“That precedent directly contradicts Governor Tina Kotek’s recent call for lawmakers to repeal her signature transportation tax package after more than 250,000 Oregonians signed a petition demanding a vote.
“’This attorney general’s opinion makes the law unmistakably clear. Once the people invoke the referendum, the Legislature has no authority to repeal it out from under them,’ said Senate Republican Leader Bruce Starr (R-Dundee), one of the chief petitioners on the successful referendum. ‘The Constitution requires an election. There is no statutory workaround, no procedural loophole, and no legal basis to keep this measure off the
ballot.’”
A few facts will be interesting as this issue develops over the next couple weeks heading toward the legislative session next month. Not sure whether they will add clarity or confusion.
One question is whether such an old Attorney General’s Opinion still rules today. It is possible that current Attorney General Dan Rayfield, head of the Department of Justice (DOJ), will be asked for his opinion to bring things into 2026.
So far, according to reporting from Oregon Public Broadcasting, “the state’s lawyers can’t say for sure whether lawmakers have authority to repeal taxes when they’re already set for a vote.
“’Since 1935, the relevant portion of the constitution has been amended and there is additional case law bearing on the issue,’ DOJ spokeswoman Jenny Hansson said in a statement Thursday. ‘We have not analyzed whether the 1935 opinion’s conclusions remain valid in light of more recent legal developments.’”
Plus, there have been cases in the past where a measure was approved for the ballot but then got pulled back. Whether those past cases matter today is another unanswered question.
And still another question revolves around the general election next November where it is likely that Kotek, who is bidding for re-election, will go up against Republican State Senator Christine Drazan. They ran against each other last time around and Kotek won. Of course, both Drazan and Kotek must win primary elections first, but both will be heavily favored to do so.
There is little question but that Kotek would prefer not to have the gas tax on same ballot as her re-election. Many voters don’t like it and some of them also could decide to vote against Kotek.
So, can Kotek convince Democrats in the Legislature to repeal the measure, and if they do, will that matter?
It’s too soon to tell. We’ll know in a few weeks. But, as a lobbyist friend of mine used to say, “don’t hold your breath.”