Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

On the golf course the other day, I played with two friends who know more about higher education that I ever will.

The two were my friend Mike Bennett who retired a few years ago as a leader of Willamette University’s attempt to raise private money, and Neil Bryant who served a few years ago as a state senator from Bend, Oregon, and, then, in retirement, went on to chair the Higher Education Coordinating Commission in Salem, Oregon.

If there was a conclusion from their conversations on the golf course, this blog headline captures it:  Uncertainty.

And the basic reason?  Money.  Or, more accurately, the lack of it.

The first lack arises from Oregon state government.  There, higher ed competes against three other entities for state tax money – K-12 education, public safety (including State Police and state prisons), and health and welfare.

Plus, federal money for some of those programs is drying up, which puts more pressure on state coffers.

Rather than cite my own detail, here is how Oregon Public Broadcasting put it the other day under this headline:  Oregon public universities are headed toward steeper cuts and higher tuition, leaders warn.

Here is more detail:

“Oregon’s higher education leaders say the state’s seven public universities and 17 community colleges need more money to keep pace with rising costs.

“Left unaddressed, they warn, institutions could face steeper cuts and families could have to shoulder more of the burden by paying more for tuition.

“Oregon has trailed most other states in public higher education funding for years.  University budgets are beset by declining enrollment, shifting federal funding priorities, increasing personnel costs, and more.

“The funding problems have pushed public universities into financial disarray.  It has also soured negotiations with employee unions who are vying for better pay and say spending growth among administrators has outpaced that of classified staff.  Nearly all of Oregon’s public universities have recently faced budget cuts and layoffs in some form.”

Specifically, the University of Oregon is trying to figure out how to fill a $65 million budget hole.  Southern Oregon University (SOU) needs to cut $20 million or it could run out of money by next June.

For the U of O, that reality has sparked background discussions on whether the university should try to become private, weening itself from any dependence on state money.

On one hand, that may sound attractive, but becoming private is harder than it sounds.  Such a move does not appear to in the cards, at least any time soon and, in fact, sources report that there are no plans to move in that director.

In a similar comment, another friend of mine told me the other day that he had visited the U of O campus in Eugene, Oregon and noticed that a private university there, Bushnell University, had been buying up property in the city.

Well, at least the following is true:  Bushnell acquired property from PeaceHealth in the University District of Eugene, Oregon, marking the largest single expansion in the university’s 130-year history.  But Bushnell, with all due respect to it, is not in the same league as the U of O

For smaller regional institutions, such as SOU, Eastern Oregon University, and Western Oregon University, there are real questions about whether they can survive.  What about mergers with the U of O or Oregon State University, Oregon’s two major universities? So far, the regionals have said, wanting to preserve their own identities.

There also have been reports that Senate Democrats in Salem, led by Senator Anthony Broadman, D-Bend, are getting ready to propose a sale tax to gain more money.  If you’re betting, bet against it.  A sales tax has been proposed nine times in Oregon and has gone down to defeat every time.

One of the reasons is that many voters believe a sale tax would be “just another tax” on top of all the others, even if advocates contend it would be accompanied by a reduction in personal income taxes. Even if that were true in one year, critics say it would not be true in the next year – just another tax.

So, for higher ed advocates, get ready for less state money and higher tuition.