Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Here’s another quick look at the governor’s election race in Oregon.

The only fact I know for sure in the race in Oregon who is running against whom.

It will be a repeat of the last time around:

• The current Democrat Governor Tina Kotek is running for re-election, hoping her first four years in the job will produce a second term.

• Her opponent, as was the case four years ago, will be current Oregon senator, Republican Christine Drazan.

Will things be different this time around?  Will a Republican win for the first time in Oregon in more than 40 years?

The best answer now:  Perhaps.

And, to Republicans, hoping for a re-set in Oregon, that is the best answer they’ve had in years.

Why?

A couple reasons.

First, Kotek won a lot of debits among voters because she supported a major gas tax and other transportation funding measures in the last Legislature.  Opponents gained referral to the primary election ballot and the measure went down like a stone.

It’s possible Kotek could pay a price for her support.

Second, Kotek has faced a number of problems in state agencies, such as, for example, in the Department of Human Resources which handles foster care management.  The agency has dramatically failed and, while state agency problems don’t translate easily to the campaign trail, foster care could be different.

Third, I don’t pay much attention to national polls on how 50 governors are doing in their states – who knows how such polls are done – but, for what it’s worth, Kotek has pulled a very low rating.  No doubt Republicans will try to capitalize on that standing.

Over the last 40 years or so, Republicans have not been able to gather enough votes in urban Oregon to win statewide elective offices, including governor.  Democrats almost always control urban outcomes.

That was the case in 2010 when the Republican candidate then, Chris Dudley, won 29 of Oregon’s 36 counties, but lost urban Oregon to Democrat John Kitzhaber who turned that strength into re-election.

Plus, this time around, the Republican primary victor, Drazan, will have to decide how to deal with the impact of Donald Trump in Oregon.  It is likely Drazan will try mostly to avoid Trump, but we can expect Kotek and her allies to tie Drazan directly to the U.S. president.

So, for now, months before the election, Democrats hope to hold their dynasty in Oregon while Republicans hope it’s time for a change.