Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Even as many Oregonians set out to vote in a primary election (Independent voters like me cannot vote), it appears that the Democrat incumbent could have a race on her hands in the fall.

That official is Democrat Tina Kotek who is in her first term and wants a second.

New poll results this week, reported by the Oregonian newspaper, appeared under this headline:  “Kotek’s popularity craters in Portland, poll shows:  What that could mean for Republican candidates.”

First, don’t you like that word “craters.”  In seven letters, it says what need to be said.

Here is how the story started:

“A new poll indicates that a majority of voters in Oregon’s most Democrat-friendly region are dissatisfied with Governor Tina Kotek, as the Democrat approaches the end of her first term and seeks another four years in office.

“Just a third of Portland metro area respondents said they have a positive opinion of Kotek, while 59 per cent said they have a negative impression of her.”

So, for the first time in more than 40 years, do Republicans have a chance to win the governor’s race?

The best answer:  Perhaps.  The fall general election is a long way off and a lot can happen politically between now and then, but Republicans are acting like this may be year for them to win.

I worked for the last Republican governor in Oregon, Vic Atiyeh, so, without indicating how I will vote in the fall, I just hope there is a real race so Oregonians have a good chance to make a good decision.  That means a credible Republican.

More from the Oregonian:

“Republicans seeking their party’s nomination to take on Kotek this fall have pointed to her weak approval ratings as a sign that Oregon could be ready to elect its first Republican governor in four decades.

“Such tepid support for Kotek in the state’s Democrat stronghold indicates that there is a small but real possibility that a Republican could defeat her this fall — even as Republicans seeking office nationwide are expected to face headwinds in November due to pushback against President Donald Trump.

Since entering office, Kotek has championed various initiatives intended to curb the state’s ongoing crises – such as housing and the state of the economy — but, so far at least, her initiatives have produced only mixed results.

One particular area where Republicans may focus their angst:  Foster care.

Here is how Oregon Public Broadcasting wrote about the issue under this headline:  “Abuse in Oregon’s foster care reaches all-time high.  State vows to figure out why and improve.”

The story started this way:

“In 2025, the rate of children in Oregon’s child welfare system being seriously harmed — physically, emotionally or sexually — reached an all-time high.

“That’s noteworthy since it came on the heels of a long-running class-action lawsuit, which was settled in May 2024 on the eve of a trial.  The primary goal of the lawsuit:  To reduce the rate of children being abused in care.”

Foster care problems existed during the administration of the governor before Kotek, Kate Brown. 

Now, nearly four years later, not much has changed.  The state agency in charge of the issue has not performed well.

It is possible that foster care problems could gain traction politically in the campaign later this summer and into the fall, not in terms of the state agency in charge, but in terms of the adverse effect on foster children.

If I was running a Republican campaign (no surprise, I am not and never would), I would focus on this issue, one where Kotek will have to be on the defensive.

So, on this and other issues, there is little question but that Kotek will have to defend her record along the campaign trail.