Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Why is the May primary election important in Oregon?

Well, it could be because, for the first time in about 40 years, a Republican is reported to have a chance in the general election next November.  First the primary in May, then the general in the fall.

I worked in Salem, Oregon, for the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh.  It was a great privilege of my professional life because Victor, as we were allowed to call him at times, performed very well in Oregon, so it was purposeful to be part of his team.

One reason he was effective is that he didn’t care who got the credit for good stuff happening back in the 1980s.  Unlike most politicians, he was happy to pass credit around to those in his Administration who deserved it, not to mention members of the general public who worked with those in government.

That’s not the only reason. 

Another was that he was a centrist.  Though a Republican, he operated from the center, working with political figures on both sides of the aisle to achieve solid results for Oregon. 

We don’t see that much anymore, either in Oregon or especially in Washington, D.C. as political figures operate from one side, not two, even though the best solutions to pressing public policy challenges often lie somewhere in the middle.

There are four main candidates bidding for the right to oppose the current Oregon Democrat governor, Tina Kotek.

They are:

• State Senator and past candidate Christine Drazan
• Private sector executive and past candidate Chris Dudley
• State Representative Ed Diehl
• Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell

Though both Drazan and Dudley lost when they ran before, here is the way the Oregonian newspaper describes their chances:

“…the two are among those leading this year’s primary field of Republicans vying for a chance to capitalize on Kotek’s unpopularity and pull off a historic upset this fall.  Both have said they believe they are the only Republican who can do so, despite their previous losses.”

Regarding the primary election in May, here are a couple excerpts from another Oregonian story that appeared under this headline:  NEW POLL SHOWS ONE CANDIDATE WAY AHEAD IN REPUBLICAN RACE FOR OREGON.

“A new statewide poll shows state Senator Christine Drazan with a commanding lead over her opponents in the Republican primary race for Oregon governor.

“Just over 31 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Drazan if the Republican primary were held today, while 15.6 per cent said they would back state Representative Ed Diehl and 14.8 per cent said they would support former Trail Blazer Chris Dudley.

“While the poll, conducted by Salem-based Nelson Research, showed that there is still time for candidates to make their case to voters ahead of the May 19 primary, it also indicated that the candidates behind Drazan have substantial ground to make up.”

This was the first major poll taken in the Republican race, so, to be confident in its conclusion, we’ll have to wait for more polling tests.

Republicans may have a general election chance this time around for several reasons:

• Kotek has not fared well in national polls testing the effectiveness of the nation’s governors.
• She favored a gas tax and other transportation funding increases that have not been popular with Oregonians.  A measure to impose the taxes and fees will be on the ballot in the primary, so the result, a likely defeat, may not stay top of mind for voters by next fall.  Republicans wanted the measure to be on the same ballot with Kotek, but their tactic did not succeed, so Kotek will be able to run on her own in November.

• Mismanagement allegations in a variety of state agencies have plagued Kotek, but we never know for sure if such allegations translate effectively into a political campaign for Kotek.  In other words, will voters pay attention?

The Republican challenger who wins the May primary will face a key general election issue:  How to relate to President Donald Trump who remains very unpopular in a blue state like Oregon.

That test won’t arise much in the Republican primary.  But just wait for the general election.  It won’t be far from the top of the agenda.

I don’t bet on elections, even privately.  But, if I did, the safe bet might be Kotek, since for years Democrats always win in blue Oregon.  But, betting aside, my sense is that Republicans have a genuine chance this time around to take the top political race in Oregon, so bets on them could make sense.