This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

“Governor Tina Kotek pitches big spending on housing and behavioral health, even amid economic uncertainty.”

That was headline that ran in the Oregonian newspaper this week as the new Oregon governor, Tina Kotek, conveyed information on one of her major, early actions in office – proposing a “Governor’s Recommended Budget for 2023-25.”

It is a required action.  Once they take office in early January, new governors, by law, are given until February 1 to announce a recommended budget for the biennium.  That set of recommendations then goes to the Legislature.

As a state lobbyist in Oregon for more years than I care to count, release of governor’s budget was always a development I anticipated with a mix of dread and excitement.  Why?  Because what governors recommend sets the tone for the only legislative action required in each long session in Salem – approval of a budget that balances expenditures with revenue.

Dread?  Perhaps governors would ignore my clients’ priorities.  Excitement?  It was a critical step in aligning state government for another two years, including, perhaps, reflecting my clients’ priorities.

In what I wrote above, note that I wrote “balanced.”  It is what Oregon law requires, far different than the federal budget where expenditures always exceed revenue, sometimes, but not always, with good reason.

Did Kotek’s first recommended budget meet the balanced budget target?

Well, deciphering that is a tall task, just as it is a tall task to read the governor’s budget and understand what it does and does not do – and what it costs to do what the governor wants to do.  It is a thick document – much like, to illustrate my advanced age, the size of an old phone book.

Still, I give Kotek credit for laying out her case for aggressive government action on her priorities, the chief of one which appears to be dealing with homelessness.  That’s what governors should do – lay down markers for what they want to achieve, then work with the Legislature to find middle ground.

I hope Kotek does this.  As a governor who came out of the Legislature, she should understand the business of dealing with legislators, not trying to run roughshod over them.  Time will tell how she does in this regard.

From the Oregonian newspaper, here are a few highlights of the Kotek budget proposal:

• Kotek wants to tap Oregon’s savings accounts to pay for expanded initiatives to tackle the state’s housing shortage, homelessness crisis, behavioral health care needs and poor education outcomes.
• Kotek wants the state to issue $770 million in debt to help build affordable homes for renters and new homeowners.
• Kotek wants to increase salaries at least for health care workers, though no doubt she eventually will go on record for salary increases for all workers at the collective bargaining table.
• Kotek wants lawmakers to approve $9.9 billion in core funding for Oregon K-12 schools, more than the $9.5 billion that state budget analysts calculated Oregon would need to hold steady at current service levels, but less than the $10.3 billion that schools advocate, including school boards and the statewide teachers union, say is necessary to prevent cuts.  [A reminder:  School lobbyists always ask for more money than they need because better that, they say, that settling low early.]

Does what Kotek has recommended meet the text of balancing revenue and expenses?  Perhaps.  But barely.

That’s because Kotek’s ambitious proposals come as state economists have said it is more than likely that Oregon will enter a mild recession this year – a recession that will reduce income tax revenue, thus making it difficult to find the money Kotek is advocating for all her priorities.

Any governor’s budget proposes trade-offs and Kotek’s first one is no exception.  For one thing, she is not recommending bonding to build new state university buildings, which has been a hallmark of most recent governor’s budgets.   Instead, she wants to focus state bonding on affordable housing. 

No doubt state universities are in the process of coming unglued.

So, are Republicans who are in the minority in both the Oregon House and Senate, a status which means they won’t usually agree with the Democrat in the state’s top political office.

Here’s what House Republicans said:  “The caucus is optimistic the governor’s budget does not call for tax increases, but we remain concerned Kotek and her agencies will raise fees on hardworking Oregonians.”

They also expressed relief that Kotek did not propose diverting Oregon’s unique “kicker” tax rebate in order to boost government spending, and they reiterated their desire for lawmakers to issue the kicker as a check to taxpayers this year instead of the usual method of returning it as a credit when people file their taxes in 2024.

“We are committed to returning these hard-earned dollars back to Oregon taxpayers,” Republicans said.

Not surprisingly, the Oregon Taxpayers’ Association has been more strident in raising questions about Kotek’s proposals.  According to an on-line publication, the Oregon Catalyst, there are more than a few questions about what Kotek is recommending.  Among them:

• Is Kotek’s plan is to spend up to $50 million paying people’s rents just a response to the rent control bill Kotek supported last session?
• How does Kotek’s budget for more affordable housing jibe with government currently blocking available land for more housing?
• If Kotek believes children have a right to education “that will set them up for a lifetime of opportunity,” why does she turn her back on charter schools?

So, in all of this, one traditional summary is this:  The governor proposes and the Legislature disposes.

What’s ahead are six months of back and forth as legislators “dispose” of what the governor has recommended and, in the end, the budget must be in balance, which means all those involved will have to engage in comprise, which means:  Getting a little and giving a little.