A STUNNING NATIONAL RESULT, PLUS ELECTION TAKEAWAYS IN OREGON

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as a Congressional press secretary in Washington, D.C., an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

If there is an agreement in the aftermath of this national election, it is this: The result was the most stunning in memory, if not in history.

Donald Trump rise to the most powerful position in the free world defied conventional wisdom and turned public opinion polling on its head.

But, if this result was stunning, think back to the 1948 election presidential election. On the evening I was born – so obviously I have no memory of the events – Thomas Dewey was predicted to defeat Harry Truman. Headline writers proclaimed that result in huge fonts, but had to eat their words.

Journalism has changed since 1948, so headline writers did not make the mistake this morning. Editions of the Salem Statesman-Journal were printed before the result was final, so the paper went with the word “Cliffhanger” on its front page.

Even the Wall Street Journal did not have final results on the morning after the election, so resorted to this non-committal headline, “Division Race Ends.” The paper didn’t say who won.

Even as the nation tries to adjust to the Trump win, I have focused mostly on Oregon races, coming up with several takeaways:

GOVERNOR KATE BROWN’S WIN: The question is what the re-elected governor, a Democrat, will do with her first elected term in office, albeit only two years to fill out the remainder of John Kitzhaber’s term.

She easily turned back a challenge from political newcomer, Salem oncologist Bud Pierce, even though various election watchers suggested that Brown had failed to impart a cohesive vision for her administration. She’ll now have a year or so to find her footing before having to run again – and she says will seek a full four-year term in 2018.

No one knows who Republicans will put up to oppose her, but one name making the rounds is Knute Buehler, who won re-election to a House seat from Bend.

BALLOT MEASURE 97 GOES DOWN: The measure went down by a wide margin, 58 to 41. The decision means legislators, who return to the Capitol in January, will have to look elsewhere for money for K-12, cops and prisons, higher education, and health care, plus the elephant in the room – a multiple million dollar Public Employee Retirement System (PERS) funding gap.

Observers wonder how Governor Brown and leaders of the legislature – House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland, and Senate President Peter Courtney, D-Salem – will react to Measure 97’s demise. Brown and Kotek endorsed passage.

Businesses, often a disparate group in Oregon, raised nearly $30 million to kill the measure, which had been lofted without much detailed analysis by public employee unions.

There is a view among some of the winning businesses that they should head to Salem immediately to propose a tax increase that has chance to pass muster with legislators and voters. Another group of businesses are reported to believe that it would smarter to hold private counsels about alternatives, then wait for the governor and legislative leaders to ask for help.

I favor the latter. No need to rush to Salem after the governor and Democrat leaders at the Capitol failed to avoid the Measure 97 mishap, thus requiring business to pony up to defeat a flawed measure.

A NEW SECRETARY OF STATE: Southern Oregon Republican Dennis Richardson, a former legislator and candidate for governor last time around, defied conventional political wisdom in Oregon by winning his race.

He did so despite conservative social beliefs that do not resonate well with urban voters. But he had two advantages in the race, the first Republican win in a state constitutional race in more than 30 years. One advantage was that he focused heavily on the auditing function of the position, which enabled him to come down on the side of improving the effectiveness of state spending, a popular theme with voters.

Richardson’s second advantage was that his opponent, Democrat Brad Avakian, ran an over-the-top campaign where he tried to depict the Secretary of State position as one involved in social issues, as well as environmental protection.

While the job is next in line of succession to the governor, the position does focus on auditing, as well as running elections.

LEGISLATIVE CONTROL: Democrats retained control of both the House and Senate in Oregon, though not with super-majorities. That means Democrats cannot pass tax increases on their own without Republican help. And, in turn, that means one of two things – either Democrats have to find one Republican vote for tax increases assuming they can keep all Democrats in line, or they will have work to find middle ground on taxes without party-line votes.

For Republicans, the question is whether they will get leadership from Democrats that asks Republicans for their contributions, and, if they do, will they follow it.

Leadership requires leaders AND followers.

Observers of legislative processes hope for middle ground on major issues, including taxes, which may be more possible, frankly, with the defeat of Measure 97.

As is the case with all elections, one early question will be whether those who won can get about the business of governing without resorting immediately to laying the foundation for another campaign. The first official test in Oregon will come in the 2017 legislative session, which starts with opening ceremonies in early January, then begins meeting in earnest in February.

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