THE FAILURES OF POLLING AND WHAT COULD BE DONE ABOUT IT

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Though I am not a polling expert, I have arrived at one, major reason why pollsters failed again to predict the outcome of the recent presidential election.  It is this:

Many respondents find it embarrassing to report they intended to vote for the clown in the Oval Office, one Donald Trump.

Or, in these days of aggressive social media, they were worried that, if they responded truthfully, their vote would somehow become public – and, however unlikely that was, they didn’t want to risk it.

From my post in the cheap seats in Salem, Oregon, this may just be a reflection of my antipathy for Trump.  How anyone would vote for him – or admit that they were going to, given his manifest indiscretions  — is beyond me.

Do I have evidence to support my contentions?  No. 

Overall, beyond my contentions, why did so many reputable pollsters — not the ones who engage in “push polling” to produce pre-determined outcomes – miss the mark again this year just as they did in the 2016 presidential election.

One analyst I read provided six reasons why the miss occurred, both in the presidential race, as well as in results for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate.

1. In the last few years, Republican voters seem to have become less willing to respond to polls. 
2. This phenomenon isn’t simply about working-class whites.  Pollsters were careful to include more of these voters in their samples than four years ago, when the polls also missed, but it didn’t solve the problem. One likely reason: Even within demographic groups — say, independent, older, middle-income white women — people who responded to polls this year leaned more Democrat than people who did not.
3. It’s also not just about Trump. Polls missed in several Senate races even more than in the presidential race, which means they did an especially poor job of finding people who voted for Biden at the top and a Republican lower down the ballot.
4. Most of the easy solutions are probably not real solutions. Since Election Day, some campaign operatives have claimed their private polls were more accurate than the public polls.  That seems more false than true.  Biden, Trump and both parties campaigned as if their own polls matched the public polls, focusing on some states that were not really competitive and abandoning others that were close.
5. Polls have still been more accurate over the last four years than they were for most of the 20th century. As pollsters get more information about this year’s election and what went wrong, they will try to fix the problems, much as they did in the past. A new challenge:  In the smartphone age, poll response rates are far lower than they used to be.
6. Journalists can do a better job of conveying the uncertainty in polls.  Polls will never be perfect.  Capturing the opinions of a large, diverse country is too difficult.  And in today’s closely divided U.S., small polling errors can make underdogs look like favorites and vice versa. James A. Baker III, the nearly superhuman chief of staff to several past presidents, also showed up with analysis in the Wall Street Journal under this headline:

Good Grief, the Pollsters Got It Wrong

Twice they’ve predicted Democratic landslides only to look like blockheads when the votes are counted.

Here are excerpts of what he wrote:

“Too many opinion pollsters have come to resemble Lucy in the cartoon strip “Peanuts.”  Ahead of the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, they held the political football in place to tee up certain Democratic victories.  But at the last second, the ball was pulled away and the entire country landed flat on its back when the Republican candidate fared much better than expected.

“It would be funny if it weren’t a sad reality that American democracy is being undermined by bad polling that consistently favors one side over the other.  Though not as ingrained in our national heritage as politicians and the press, polling is an important component in the governance of the nation, as it presents snapshots of the positions Americans take on the challenges that confront us.

“Elected leaders, candidates for public office and constituents often rely on polling as they make their choices on issues that affect the health of the nation.”

Accurate information, Baker added, “is critical to political discourse, and everyone loses when so many pollsters are consistently wrong. Polls that repeatedly favor one side create false expectations that adversely influence the actions of both sides.  The favored side becomes overconfident and suffers when the results on Election Day don’t meet expectations.  And the disfavored side is disadvantaged in both fundraising and voter turnout by the appearance that the outcome is foreordained.”

Baker proposes actions he believes could help the public discourse.

  • Require reputable media outlets to avoid polling firms that do work for campaigns and others with political agendas.  The apparent conflict of interest in such arrangements deserves correction.  
  • Consider congressional hearings to gather more information, though attempts to legislate and regulate polling would likely collide with First Amendment considerations, and so the options for regulation may be limited.
  • Leave the solution in the hands of those whose livelihoods depend on opinion polling.  Pollsters and those who employ them need to take a serious look at the way polls are conducted. They need to re-examine how to collect a truly representative sample of voters, an admittedly difficult task in a world of new technology where landlines have mostly been replaced by cellphones and the Internet.  They also need to examine whether they are intentionally, knowingly or subconsciously letting their biases influence them.

A set of magic answers?  Of course not.

So, for the moment, the best response of individuals interested in politics – I am one – is to retain a healthy skepticism of polling.  Don’t rely on it totally.  Vote.  They wait for election results to produce the outcome that democracy demands.

A LONG DRIVE FROM OREGON TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

As I write this, I am still recovering from more than 16 hours driving from Salem, Oregon to Southern California.

It was a good trip, as long as you think of it as “an adventure,” as I did.

A few random perceptions along the way of more than 1,000 miles:

  • There sure are a lot of Amazon trucks trekking north and south along I-5.  Fascinating to think of what it takes to get products from point A to point B every day. 

Give Jeff Bezos his due – the system seems to work.

  • As in past cases of driving south, I noticed all big rig trucks heading south, some of them in my lane in the two-lane stretch of I-5. 

Plus, many of these rigs go by labels that include the word “logistics.”  Not “hauling” or “transporting,” but “logistics.”

What goes logistics mean?  The dictionary defines the term this way:

“The detailed coordination of a complex operation involving many people, facilities, or supplies.”

So, it is accurate.

  • On several occasions, cars whipped past me going at least 90 miles per hour.  Where were the cops?

To put a point on it, in all my years of driving, I have never seen a cop pull over a driver who was going so fast over the speed limit.  Sure, seen other pull-overs, but none at high rates of excessive speed.

Where’s the justice in that?

To be sure, there is some solace after 16-plus hours in the car.  When we arrived in La Quinta, California, it was 85 degrees, the sun was out, and the sky was clear.

The next step is golf in the warmth.

THE DEPARTMENT OF PET PEEVES IS OPEN AGAIN: PERVERTING THE TERM “EVANGELICAL”

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

You know what bugs me?  Or, perhaps more accurately, do you care?

Well, I’ll assume, for the moment, that you do care.

It irritates me no end to see how the term “evangelical” has been so perverted these days that it appears only to connote a religious group that supports Donald Trump.

So, to buttress my peeve, I am opening the Department of Pet Peeves, one of three departments I run with full and complete authority to manage them as I see fit.

So, about the word evangelical.

Here is the dictionary definition of the word:

“The term evangelical derives from the Greek word eangelion meaning ‘gospel’ or ‘good news.’  Technically speaking, evangelical refers to a person, church, or organization that is committed to the Christian gospel message that Jesus Christ is the savior of humanity.”

These days, however, the term has been perverted to refer to a group of people who support all of lies, distortions and character flaws that have marked Trump’s nearly four years as president.

Here is how columnist Michael Gerson summarized the issue in a piece in the Washington Post that appeared under this headline:

This is a massive failure of character among Republicans — with evangelicals out in front

The reference is to the kowtowing Republicans are doing as Trump continues to refuse to accept reality – he lost the election.

Gerson writes on:  “One of the better speeches I helped produce for George W. Bush was never given.  On election night 2000 — standing outside in the rain, at an Austin victory rally that never happened — I had the copy of a concession speech in my pocket.  As I remember it, the first lines were:  ‘I have just talked to my opponent, who is no longer my opponent.  He is the president-elect of the United States.’

“What America is now experiencing is a massive failure of character — a nationwide blackout of integrity — among elected Republicans.  From the president, a graceless and deceptive insistence on victory after a loss that was not even close.  From congressional Republicans, a broad willingness to conspire in Trump’s lies and to slander the electoral system without consideration of the public good.  Only a few have stood up against Republican peer pressure of contempt for the constitutional order.”

Gerson wonders how this could happen to the GOP?

He answers:  “It is not an aberration.  It is the culmination of Trump’s influence among Republicans, and among White evangelical Christians in particular.  Their main justification for supporting Trump — that the president’s character should be ignored in favor of his policies — has become a serious danger to the Republic.

“Trump never even presented the pretense of good character.  His revolt against the establishment was always a revolt against the ethical ground rules by which the establishment played.  When he mocked a reporter with a disability, or urged violence at his rallies, or attacked a Gold Star family, Republicans accepted it as part of the Trump package.  And some of his most fervent defenses came from White evangelicals.”

Following Trump’s leadership – if that word can be used to describe Trump’s reign – some “evangelicals” went from believing personal morality matters in a politician to ignoring that same morality.

Not all evangelicals, I contend.  But a significant proportion of them.

Certain evangelicals believed they were hiring Trump to do a job — to defend their institutions, implement pro-life policies and appoint conservative judges.  The character of the president was irrelevant so long as he kept his part of the bargain.

Gerson says he believes two lessons can be drawn from “the Republican failure of moral judgment.”

  • First, democracy is an inherently moral enterprise.  Yes, politics has a transactional element.  But those transactions take place within a system of rules that depend on voluntary obedience.  Our electoral system and our presidential transition process have flaws and holes that an unprincipled leader can exploit.  Which is a good reason to prefer principled leaders.
  • Second, U.S. politics would be better off if White evangelicals consistently applied their moral tradition to public life.  Consider what would happen if White evangelicals insisted on supporting honest, compassionate, decent, civil, self-controlled men and women for office.  The alternative is our current reality, in which evangelicals have often been a malicious and malignant influence in U.S. politics.

For my part, I eschew using the term evangelical to describe myself, though I am one based on the definition above. 

I remained peeved by how the term has been used and abused in public life.

A EULOGY FOR BOONE, THE MAJESTIC

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

I use the word “eulogy” in the blog headline because that’s what this is:  A eulogy to the dog, “Boone, the Majestic,” who passed away a few days ago.

He worked at my home golf course, Illahe Hills Golf and Country Club in Salem, Oregon, with his master, golf course Superintendent Steve Beyer.

Why the title, “The Majestic?”  Well, if you saw this “German Short-Haired Pointer,” you, too, would call him majestic.

He belonged both to his family, as well as to all of us at Illahe Hills where he “worked” (see below) and made many fast friends, including me.

It must be said that Boone is looking down at us from heaven where he is romping in the fields with our first dog, Hogan, and our friends John and Rosemary Wood’s dog, Tiger.  Great image to store in our minds!

Boone’s passing was uneventful, though Steve reported that Boone had been going downhill lately. 

A couple days ago, Steve carried Boone out to his truck for one last trip to Illahe, then carried him back home where Steve and his family – wife and four kids – were able to say goodbye to Boone as he passed peacefully.

If Boone had to go – and it appeared “it was his time” — what a great way for it occur, naturally and at home with his family.

Boone, simply, was a great dog.  As soon as he arrived at my home golf course two years ago, I fell in love with him and enjoyed seeing him work on “his course.”

He was a member of the maintenance crew and, boy, was he good at what he did.  His job was to keep geese away from the course and he succeeded beyond all expectations. 

As I befriended him, I never knew for sure whether he liked me or the treats I had for him in my golf cart.  Probably both. 

Last summer, my wife and I were sitting on our deck above the golf course and, as we sat in the clear, night air, we had the privilege of watching our maintenance staff work on the course to keep it in playable condition.  Our sightline included one of the stalwarts of the crew, Boone.

His job was to chase geese away and, let me tell you, he was great at what he did!

As we watched, he ran around and around tirelessly one of the ponds on the course, tirelessly, making sure geese would not land or pollute the ground if they did.

In a newsletter article soon after Steve and Boone arrived at Illahe, Steve provided this background:

“Boone was named after the famous Daniel Boone who has been known in history as the American hunter.

“Boone entered my life as a young ‘Bennie’ from the animal shelter in Sand Point, Idaho.  That was what the shelter named him.  Our family decided on the name Boone due to the fact that he is a German Short-Haired Pointer and has been bred to hunt upland bird and game.

“That is important because Boone, literally ‘an employee’ on Illahe’s maintenance crew, will take on a key assignment, one for which he is well-suited and which no other employee could do with such dedication and abandon.

“It is to rid the course of pesky geese – and, in regard to those birds, let me just say that they are better when flying than staying on the ground.

“You know what happens when they are on the ground.  Often.

“At his new home, Boone is intent on learning, not just how to chase geese away, but also “to know where the best rodent areas are.”  He’ll chase those, too, away from our golf greens.”

**********

And, now, I add, I see Boone romping around in heaven with Hogan and Tiger.  And, for I know, Boone may be chasing geese there, too.

THE COST OF TRUMP’S TRANSITION BLOCKING SHENANIGANS

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

If anyone thought the election was over, it was not Donald Trump.

Most others who matter are moving on to consider the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Not Trump and his sycophants — some of whom appear on such shows, entertainment shows, not news shows, as the one featuring Sean Hannity — continue to spew rhetoric to cast doubt on the election.

Here is a litany of Trump-led steps that are much worse for the future of our country, with American democracy literally at stake – much worse than talk show blabber:

  • Trump refuses to concede the election and may never do so, thus having to be carried of the White House in January by the Secret Service and military.
  • Trump refuses to allow his General Services Department secretary to confirm election results, a required first step on the path to enable the transition to proceed.
  • Trump refuses to allow national security briefings for Biden, Harris and their staffs, thus preserving for himself access to classified information (and, pointedly, preserving the ability to fire Defense Department Secretary Mark Esper this week).

Of course, all of this illustrate that Trump, the narcissist, cannot tolerate being a loser.

Still, that’s what he is – not to mention was as he led a nation down the rat hole of division and dissension over the last four years.

Does all of this matter?  The answer is yes.

And the confirmation was provided by two persons who served as chief of staff for former presidents – Andrew Card for George Bush and John Podesta for Bill Clinton.

Under this headline in the Washington Post – “The life-threatening costs of a delayed transition” – they wrote about the risks of a lack of a genuine transition>

“We happened to find ourselves on opposing ends of the historic Bush v. Gore dispute in Florida in 2000, one of only four times in U.S. history when the outcome of a presidential election was too close to call.

“While we disagreed about many issues then and have disagreed since, we do agree on one thing:   The 2020 election is not like 2000 and should not be treated as such.

“Election night in 2000 was a blur of confusion. Each candidate had nearly enough electoral college votes to win.  Whoever won Florida would become the next president.  The networks called Florida for Vice President Al Gore, then called Florida for Bush, and then withdrew the call completely.  Gore initially conceded, but then retracted his concession, a first in U.S. history.  In the end, after the recount started and stopped, the two candidates were divided by a margin of just 537 votes in the one state which determined the election’s outcome.

“As a result, while Bush and key staff were provided full intelligence briefings, the Bush transition did not have access to federal agencies and resources for 37 long days.

“President-elect Joe Biden and his transition team should not suffer a similar delay.  The electoral landscape is simply not the same.  The outcome is not the same.  And we have since learned the serious costs of a delayed transition.”

What serious costs?

Well, only eight months after Bush’s inauguration, two planes flew into the World Trade Center, killing nearly 3,000 Americans.  Card had fateful duty to whisper into Bush’s ear, “America is under attack.”

When the 9/11 Commission finished its assessment on the attack, Card and Podesta said it found that the delayed transition “hampered the new administration in identifying, recruiting, clearing and obtaining Senate confirmation of key appointees in the national security arena.”

The commission also concluded that avoiding future disruptions in transitions was deeply in the national interest.

These days in 2020 which is very different than 2000, the delayed transition (it is fomented by Trump) will hinder economic recovery, slow the distribution of a vaccine and, could put American lives at risk.

Card and Podesta, who fought bitterly over the recount in 2000, said the grim realities of the pandemic underline that the transition process should begin now.

They should tell Trump and company in person.

THE ELECTION IS OVER – OR IS IT?

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Clear results show that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the presidential election.

But that reality isn’t stopping Donald Trump from acting like he won and ignoring conventional ways to enable a transition from one administration to the next. 

His “administration” (there’s that non-sensical word again, when it pertains to Trump) has not provided any national security briefings to Biden and company.  Nor has it conceded that Biden and team will have access to classified international relations information.

The trouble, of course, is that Trump intransigence, enabled by many Republicans, could feed the interests of terrorists out to disable America, perhaps to the extent as occurred in the 9/11 tragedy.

The fact Trump is now a lame-duck president will not stop him from taking unilateral actions.

I note that I made a pledge earlier that, with his defeat, I would no longer write blogs about Trump.  Now, I revise that pledge to say that I will not write blogs about Trump as president, which is easy to do since he is almost not president.

His conduct, as well as that of his enablers, is too egregious to ignore as all Americans should be making whatever adjustment is necessary to welcome a new president and vice president to their solemn leadership responsibilities.

Here is the way Washington Post columnist Michael Gerson, one of my favorites, wrote about the bad faith of Trump and many Republicans this morning:

“It is not over.

“The presidential election is certainly over and the result was not particularly close.  President-elect Joe Biden won a decisive majority of the popular and likely a considerable electoral college victory.  Claims of widespread electoral fraud would be spurious even if they weren’t made by a prating fool in front of a Philadelphia landscaping firmThe 2020 election is done.  Concluded.  Finished.

“What has not ended — what seems endless — is Republican bad faith and poltroonery.

“I am not referring here to those voters for Trump who have been misled into false hope.  It is not hard to convince people who distrust elites and are prone to conspiracy theories that elites are plotting to deny “real” Americans their influence.  It does not even matter if the vote-counters are Republicans, because that is exactly what a conspiracy would do to hide its nefarious work.

“No, it is Republican leaders who are responsible for poisoning whatever wells of goodwill still exist in our republic.  Having aided Trump’s autocratic delusions, they are now abetting his assault on the orderly transfer of power.  Through their active support or guilty silence, most elected Republicans are encouraging their fellow citizens to believe that America’s democratic system is fundamentally corrupt.  No agent of China or Russia could do a better job of sabotage.  Republicans are fostering cynicism about the constitutional order on a massive scale.  They are stumbling toward sedition.”

Strong words, you may say.  Yes, strong words are in order.

What Trump is doing is sabotaging the future of the country, which based on his last four years, comes naturally to him.

It’s time for Trump, the narcissist, to recognize reality, if that is not a conflict in terms.  It’s also time for his enablers to do the same – for the good of the country.

WHY TEARS FOR BIDEN AND HARRIS?

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

In a blog yesterday, I said that the victory speeches by President-Elect Joe Biden and Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris brought tears to my eyes.

How would that be so for an old, stodgy person like myself – and I use those labels before someone else does?

Two reasons:

  • First, both Biden and Harris gave excellent speeches calling on Americans to support decency, cooperation, empathy and truth-telling. 
  • Second, television cameras at their speeches in Delaware panned across the faces of those in the audience to show that they were inspired.

I was especially touched by the tear-stained faces of young girls, including Black girls, who saw, in Harris, someone they could aspire to.  Yes, aspire to.  Their faces were amazing as they appeared to feel that they, too, could rise.

Harris, of course, is making history as the first woman to serve as vice president and, also, the first Black woman.

One of her best lines as she spoke:  “’While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last,’ she said to resounding cheers, as several young girls looking on from the crowd waved flags with tears in their eyes.

To put a point on all of this, nothing in the time of Donald Trump ever even approached inspiration.   Blessedly, his time will soon be over, though he likely will never concede.

For me, in viewing Biden and Harris, gender doesn’t matter.  Nor does age.  What matters is leaders like Biden and Harris are calling America to eschew division and hatred and embrace empathy and possibility.

None too soon and I hope Trump will take his reality TV show host gig and recede into the background where he belongs.

UNCERTAINTY AND CONFRONTATION YIELDS TO OPTIMISM AND “POSSIBIILITIES”

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

As a 40-year veteran of politics, it would be logical to believe it would not be possible for me to grow teary over an election result.  After all, I have seen too many of them up close and personal.

But, last night was different.

With tears in my eyes, I watched President-Elect Joe Biden and Vice President-Dlect Kamala Harris address a throng of supporters in Biden’s home state, Delaware.

  • Possibilities.
  • Decency.
  • Truth.
  • Empathy.

Good words. 

Good words that would never have been uttered by Donald Trump who continues to eschew the normal rite of conceding defeat for the good the country and enabling a solid transition of power.

The reality is that he may have to be evicted from the White House.

So it was that, as Biden and Harris gave what amounted to victory speeches, I had tears in my eyes.

They have an unbelievably tough job to turn the country from indecency and division to decency and cooperation – and, as Biden put, to avoid viewing opponent as enemies, for they are all Americans.

Events of the last hours, verify that Biden and Harris have the wherewithal to pull off the recovery task if, as Biden said, all of us as Americans demonstrate the ability to choose cooperation over confrontation.

To commemorate this new day in America (despite what will surely be Trump’s intention to disavow defeat), I cite these paragraphs from commentators.

FROM THE LEAD WASHINGTON POST STORY ON THE ELECTION RESULT:  “Although transitions of power can always include abrupt changes, the shift from Trump to Biden — from one president who sought to undermine established norms and institutions to another who has vowed to restore the established order — will be among the most startling in American history.”

FROM COLUMNIST DANA MILBANK IN THE WASHINGTON POST:  “Donald Trump has lost the presidency.   Americans have sent packing the man who made the lives of so many a hell for the past four years with constant chaos, unbridled vitriol and attacks on the foundations of democracy. There may be difficulty in the days ahead because of (gratuitous) court challenges and (baseless) claims of fraud. The rage he has induced in supporters and opponents alike will take time to dissipate. But for a moment, let us rejoice: Our democracy has survived.”

FROM WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL WRITERS:  “Biden’s victory — and Trump’s defeat — is a testament to the resilience of American democracy.  In other countries, at other times, bullies like Trump have succeeded in becoming strongmen by promising security from dangerous outsiders, demonizing cultural elites and sowing enough confusion and apathy that people failed to resist the slide into illiberalism.

“Trump tried all of these tactics.  But Americans resisted. They did so in an overwhelming yet orderly fashion, at the ballot box, when it was their turn to have another say, despite the fact that Trump and his allies adopted a strategy of disenfranchisement when they realized they could not win fairly.

“They answered his four years of divisiveness by electing a woman — a woman of color — to be vice-president for the first time in the nation’s history.  Citizens in unprecedented numbers stood in line for hours to vote, starting weeks before Election Day.”

After celebrating the election win, Biden and Harris face daunting tasks that will focus first on controlling the coronavirus, then turn to stimulating economic growth.  Sources say they also will move to rejoin the Paris climate accords, to reverse Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, to repeal the ban on almost all travel from some Muslim-majority countries, to reinstate the program allowing “dreamers,” who were brought to the United States illegally as children, to remain in the country.

Back to the word “possibilities,” a keynote of Biden’s victory speech.  Nothing illustrates the word more clearly than the rise of the first Black women from an immigrant family to the second highest political office in the land.

“While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last,” Harris, wearing all white, said to raucous applause (as she joined Biden on the victory podium.

“Because every little girl watching tonight sees that this is a country of possibilities.”

I say “possibilities,” too as we embark on a task to renew America’s spirit and inspiration.

MY ELECTION TAKE-AWAYS FOR OREGON

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

There’s that word again – “take-ways.”

No problem with it (notice that I like a hyphen in it), but headline writers and journalists love to use the word to convey overarching results of an election such as the one we just had – or, better put, “are still just having.”.

I will avoid postulating – proposing take-aways – for the national election, for there are enough prognosticators to go around without adding my words to the mix.

But I will propose some take-aways to glean from Oregon’s election, which is essentially over.  I do so because I always think it’s good to take an overall look at election results rather than just tabulate totals in individual races.

Implications are important in the aftermath of any election.  Here are mine.

VOTE-BY-MAIL WORKS

The process worked very well again in Oregon – and that is no doubt a result of the process having worked well here for 20 years.  It was designed initially to produce higher turnout and that, too, has worked. 

The turnout a record 2.3 million-plus Oregon voters when to the polls, or, it could be said, sat at a kitchen to fill out their ballot.  The total exceeded 2016 at about 80 per cent.  Here are two amplifications of vote-by-mail success.

As the Oregonian newspaper put, “unlike nationally, few Oregon races are undecided after election night.”

“Oregon’s well-oiled vote-by-mail system delivered decisive results in the vast majority of contests Tuesday night.  Oregon’s six contested seat in Congress, its three races for statewide state office, nearly all legislative races and key money measures — all were decided shortly after the balloting deadline, thanks to swift action by voters and election officials.”

DEMOCRATS REMAIN IN CHARGE NEARLY EVERYWHERE, THUS AGGRAVATING THE URAN-RURAL SCHISM

Again from the Oregonian newspaper:  “Oregon has tilted blue for some time.  But this year’s election results reinforced the state’s Democrat voters’ dominance.  The statewide votes for former Vice President Joe Biden to become president and incumbent Senator Jeff Merkley to serve another term were overwhelming, as were the votes to install the three Democrat candidates in statewide offices — incumbents Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum and Treasurer Tobias Read and newcomer Shemia Fagan as Secretary of State.”

And, with Democrats preserving super-majorities in both the House and the Senate, the Ds can raise taxes on their own, without any Republican votes, if they choose to do so.  They have not yet announced any tax increase proposals, but you can bet supermajorities will provide a major incentive.

The Ds charge come almost exclusively from urban Oregon which means the urban-rural divide will continue to be a dominant issue in Salem.  Not just the divide, but rural Republicans claim Ds don’t even listen as they pass bills that harm or could harm rural Oregon.

In my past, both as a lobbyist and deputy director of the Oregon Economic Development Department, I have see that to be true more often than not.

The Ds wanted to expand super-majorities by two votes in each chamber to avoid Republican walk-outs when the Rs wouldn’t provide a quorum.  The Ds did not succeed, so walking out remains an option for the Rs when they feel that doing so is a last resort.

One of my friends the other day claimed that walking-out shirked the duties of those who were elected.  I responded yes, that’s true, most of the time.  But, if you represent rural Oregon and urban leaders want to pass bills that would harm your constituents, walking-out could be your only option.

Those you represent in rural areas likely would applaud your action.  And, whatever is the case, both Rs and Ds have walked-out in the past, so, if disdain is warranted, it goes to both sides.

OREGON VOTERS PORTRAYED INDEPENDENT STREAKS

The two best examples are the votes to decriminalize possession of most street drugs and the other to allow supervised use of psilocybin from mushrooms.  Both are nationally notable, as they mark the first time any state has permitted the non-prosecuted possession or use of substances.

To be fair, the Oregonian newspaper says “backers of the measure to decriminalize drugs, many of whom are former addicts with long records of hard-won sobriety, said they want people caught with small amounts of heroin, meth and other drugs to get assessed and treated to end their addiction, not to keep using.  But it would not be a crime for them to do so.”

Another independent streak occurred when Multnomah County voters endorsed tax increases or keeping property taxes at current levels to aid kids, library users, parks-goers and the like.

No bottom-line perception here.  Just recognition that, from a process standpoint, the election went well in Oregon.  And that is not true in some parts of the country.

Now, for Oregon, it’s on to the long regular legislative session at the Capitol and the major issue is whether the process will allow members of public to participate, given the pandemic.  If not, that will be a blot on the Legislature, which holds itself out as a beacon of democratic light.  Not always true.

A NEW PLEDGE: NO MORE BLOGS ON TRUMP

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Regardless of how the presidential election turns out, I am making a new pledge as I continue to write my blog.

I intend write no more about Donald Trump no matter if he wins or loses the presidency.  [I suppose this pledge could change if Trump does something so heinous that it compels a response.]

Overall, he doesn’t deserve any more of my time or my words.

If he wins, I fear for the future of this country because so many Americans bought his line, not to mention his character flaws, which reflect blatant narcissism.

If he loses, good riddance.  Here’s hoping that his huge debts and other illegal actions will catch up with him when he no longer has the protections of the presidency.

Meanwhile, it is likely the outcome of the election may rest with the U.S. Supreme Court.  Too bad.

Though I continue to hope the Supreme Court won’t decide the outcome on its own, but, rather, will assure that every vote, however its cast (by mail or in person) will be counted.  The future of U.S. democracy, under attack by Trump, deserves no less protection…as do voters.

At about mid-morning today, Biden operatives were quoted positively about the election outcome, though nothing will be sure for days, if not weeks.

This election was different for me, though I have been retired from my lobbying career for a few years.  In the past, I would usually stay up late to monitor results, including on-line, then join my colleagues to write assessments for clients.

This time, no.  I went to bed early.  One reason is that I already had far too much of national TV prognosticators plumbing the depths of every Florida county.  Time to turn off the TV and do what I do best the next day, which is read newspapers to get the best take on what happened or is happening.

And, about those polls…inaccurate for the second presidential election in a row.  I just think many of those called by pollsters don’t respond truthfully, especially when it comes to Trump because they are embarrassed by their support.