Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

To the question in this blog headline, conservative media outlet The Oregon Catalyst answers “yes.”

But, it strikes me as being far too early to predict a tough race for a Democrat governor in Oregon.  After all, there has not been a Republican here for more than 40 years.  Plus, whatever signs could exist now might evaporate by next November.

Still, Oregon Catalyst says Kotek is slipping, then cites seven reasons why it believe she may be in trouble.  Are they actual “reasons,” or just “hopes?”  Who knows?

Here is what the Catalyst wrote:

“Being that the Oregon governor’s race is so critical, we will not lose any opportunity to spot problems with the incumbent.

1.  Lax fundraising.  Kotek raised less money this year than two potential opponents subject to the primary election, Senator Christine Drazan and Chris Dudley.  The $900,000 Kotek has raised in 2026 is still healthy, but not what could be expected for an incumbent in a blue state fighting to keep her job.

2.  Low approval.   The latest YouGov poll of the nation’s 50 governors has placed her among the bottom six for approval.

3.  Mini-speeches:  Kotek’s speech before an audience of 30,000 marchers in Portland was only a little more than three minutes long.   This shows she is lacking energy and ambition and is just going through the motions.

4.  Staff turnover.  Three of Kotek’s top aides announced this spring they will be leaving all at once.

5.  Low endorsement enthusiasm.  Both the largest teachers’ union and the Working Families Party have declined to endorse her.

6.  Rare public appearance.  Kotek was not very present during the Legislature’s Short Session and has not done many public events on the recent campaign trail.  Kotek boasted that she did 100 meetings during her two-week trip to Asia, but since she returned her media schedule has appeared to be small.

7.  Not much involvement in 2026 Legislative short session.  Kotek was often absent. 

Well, Oregon Catalyst may want more than it will receive when the election rolls around next year.

If I was a political analyst for the governor, the toughest issue would be the lack of endorsement from normally Democrat organizations, such as the Oregon Education Association (OEA).  But the lack may be only temporary because I suspect the OEA will come back around to the governor.  As an association, it has nowhere else to go.

Kotek’s opponent in the general election won’t be decided until the primary when Drazan and Dudley go up against each other.  In past gubernatorial elections, both ran relatively well.  Drazan lost to Kotek last time around and Dudley came close to John Kitzhaber a few years ago.

Either Republican could run well in Oregon, though would have to find a way to capture votes in urban Oregon, not just rural Oregon.

The bottom line? 

Months is an eternity in politics, so it is too early to predict the character of the general election, as well as who might win.  But, if I was betting – and I am not – my money would be on Kotek next November, though she will face various challenges, including in at least one major area – her support for a gas tax increase the public does not favor.