Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

I wrote this blog headline after reading another blog, one posted by my former business partner and still friend, Gary Conkling.

His post appeared under this subhead, good general advice for Oregonians interested in developing Oregon’s economy.

We Need to Own Our Weaknesses, But Pursue Our Strengths

Conkling’s post summarized proposals from John Tapogna, an economist in Oregon who now chairs the Oregon Business Council, a roundtable of top business executives interested in growing Oregon’s economy at a time when there is uncertainty about its future..

So, without further ado, I re-post Conkling’s column because it contains ideas worth considering.

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Oregon’s current economic and education policies were “built to solve yesterday’s problems” and, if unchanged, could result in “stagnation, scarcity and decline,” according to John Tapogna, new president of the Oregon Business Council.

“The question shouldn’t be whether we can afford to change,” Tapogna says, “but whether we can afford not to.”

His analysis of what’s wrong with Oregon is hard to deny. However, some of his cures may be as controversial as the causes he cites and could produce political stalemate and even deeper divisions.

It’s not a pie-in-the-sky idea. Oregon ranked 1^st nationally in university licenses, 4^th nationally in patents per capita, 5^th in university-driven startups and 7^th in the 2024 Innovation Index. We have the ability to define our own future in high tech, advanced manufacturing and medical innovation, creating new jobs, more exports and renewed confidence in Oregon as the place to live, work and play.

A good example reported by the Oregon Journalism Project is the $2.5 billion robotics start-up that began in an Oregon State University laboratory and now has its flagship robot Digit working in Amazon warehouses and Toyota manufacturing plants.

Tapogna’s Case

Tapogna cites out-of-date economic, educational and land-use policies as harbingers of a “doom-cycle” in Oregon with businesses leaving, new investment lagging and student achievement remaining low. The state’s natural beauty, he says, won’t be enough to bail out Oregon’s economy.

The five challenges Tapogna singled out are a chronic housing shortage, “lousy” K-12 schools, wildfires, overreliance on income taxes, and ambivalence about growth.

Because of his credibility stemming from his long-time leadership at ECO Northwest, Tapogna’s stinging criticism is receiving lots of attention. So far, that attention hasn’t materialized into a strategy, but will surely be grist for the gubernatorial election this year.

Tapogna’s Recommended Cures

His core recommendation is for Oregon leaders to shift from a “no-growth” mentality to a “pro-growth mentality.” His cures focus on modernization and accountability.

To address the housing shortage, Tapogna calls for accelerated housing construction, land-use planning that allows more density and an increased supply of affordable housing. None of that is overly controversial, except in urban neighborhoods where a triplex may replace a single-family house. But boosting housing supply has proven to be a stubborn target.

Governor Kotek has set aggressive housing construction goals, persuaded lawmakers to authorize large expenditures and convinced local jurisdictions to make it easier and cheaper to build more housing units.

Despite a strong effort, data shows new housing permits in Oregon dropped by 33 per cent in 2024 compared to 2021. Oregon in 2025 again fell far short of Kotek’s 36,000-unit annual target, thwarted by labor and material cost increases and exacerbated by import tariffs and immigrant construction worker deportations. 

Economic uncertainty fueled by the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran threatens to stoke inflation and discourage further interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve Board.

K-12 Education

Tapogna hasn’t spared words for Oregon’s K-12 educational performance with low reading and math proficiency scores, high absenteeism rates, and still lagging graduation rates. His cure is “more coherent” state oversight, increased reporting and stricter accountability.

K-12 schools face declining enrollment which affects state funding, higher salary and operating costs and the need for expensive repair or replacement of aging school facilities. It will take more than state oversight to alter how schools educate digital age students who learn differently and face complex psychological challenges.

Wildfires and Environmental Risk

Tapogna says increasing wildfire frequency and the smoke it generates is undermining Oregon’s reputation for a quality lifestyle and contributing to outmigration.

Addressing this challenge is complicated because 60 per cent of Oregon’s 30 million acres of forestland is managed by federal agencies. Under the Trump administration, the priority for federal forests is more logging, not wildfire prevention. Critics have complained that funding cuts have hindered the ability to use preventive fires or be ready to fight wildfires.

Over-reliance on Income Taxes

Relying on income taxes is driving away some employers and high-wealth individuals, according to Tapogna, resulting in volatile swings in available tax revenue.

Oregon ranks sixth highest in marginal income tax rates at 9.9 per cent for top earners. Portland has the nation’s highest combined state and local income tax rate, which can push high-income taxpayers up to 14-15 per cent marginal rates. Oregon’s corporate taxation also ranks among the nation’s highest.

Tapogna calls for “rebalancing” Oregon’s tax system. It’s unclear exactly what that would involve. Introducing a broad-based sales tax to offset income tax rates is one option, but it would face opposition for making Oregon’s tax system more regressive.

Critics such as the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy argue Oregon’s current tax system is already regressive for low-income families who pay a higher percentage of tax on their income compared to other states.

Ambivalence About Growth

Tapogna asserts Oregon suffers from “cultural ambivalence” or even resistance to population growth. His suggested cure is a strategy of “modest growth” that supports small business creation and expansion and aims to convince existing businesses to remain here.

In addition to abandoning a “no-growth” mindset, he urges modernizing regulatory systems and adjusting land-use policies to focus on a “vibrant” business environment that supports a growing population.

That may be easier said than done given Oregon’s aging population with locked-in views on growth. Senior citizens already outnumber children in Oregon and account for nearly one-third of the state’s total population. Another factor is the high rate of Oregonians with second homes, especially on the Oregon Coast and in Central Oregon, who have a stake in maintaining the status quo.

Impetus for Change

Tapogna’s call for policy resets and regulatory modernization are hard to dispute. However, they don’t lend themselves to easy or quick actions. Altering tax systems or modernizing school systems aren’t overnight tasks.

Encouraging serious consideration for Tapogna’s suggested changes is a no-brainer. Expecting instant results is unreasonable.

The most immediate step for Oregon to put itself back on the map is investing in promising research based on existing strength, research capabilities, and potential manpower. Oregon leaders need to think like investors. Investments could be public, private or a combination.

Oregon leaders need to think like investors.

Trying to race to the bottom to compete with southern states is more likely to fail than shooting for the stars by promoting new concepts such as mass timber production, advanced medical research, semiconductors, behavioral health, robotics, and wave energy.

Oregon universities are national leaders in materials science, forestry, oceanography, bioengineering and preventive medicine. Oregon has a reputation for sustainability and could make itself hospitable for researchers and startups aiming to address climate change, ocean acidification and preventable diseases.

Kudos to Tapogna for identifying Oregon’s weaknesses and offering suggested cures. It may be even more important to inventory Oregon’s strengths and pursue a plan to capitalize on them. A good starting place is investing in our universities as seedbeds for technology, inventors and a better future.

Tapogna is absolutely right in warning that the loss we should fear isn’t the one in the past but the next one in the future. The future comes around quickly and we need to focus on our best winning strategy.