Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

A new legislative session will begin soon in Oregon, but, as always, politics lurks behind the scenes.

Specifically, the next governor’s race here.

Incumbent Democrat Governor Tina Kotek will play a major rule in the session as her party controls both the House and the Senate.  But, sometimes behind the scenes, sometimes up front, Republicans can be expected to play thrust and parry with Kotek.

That’s because one of their main members, Senator Christine Drazan, is running for governor again and, no doubt, will try to make Kotek’s political life more difficult in the next few weeks in Salem.

That’s why I use the word “lurks” in this blog headline.

I like that word.  Politics lurks behind every decision.  Here is what the word means:  “To remain hidden so as to wait in ambush for someone or something.”  That kind of surprise can happen in any legislative session – and, as for words, I also use “surprise” intentionally.  No one knows for sure how political issues will come up until they do.

It used to be the case in Oregon that the Legislature met every two years, not every year.

Then, the late Senator Peter Courtney proposed annual sessions and voters bought into it.

For what it’s worth – not much, I know – I, as a long-time lobbyist here, opposed the idea.  I thought then and I think now that it would be enough for legislators to meet every other year, if – yes, if – they spent the time out of session preparing genuinely for the next foray at the Capitol in Salem.

Well, I lost.

Back to the governor’s race.  Kotek will run the May primary election, but there could be a bit of tussle to see who opposes here.  Drazan will be favored to win, but a former Republican candidate, Chris Dudley, threw his hat into the ring a week or so ago and, though he has been out of politics for a few years, he came close to Democrat John Kitzhaber a few years ago, so he could mount a fairly effective campaign.

Still and all, Kotek, despite a few missteps in her first years as governor, no doubt will be favored to win again because, if nothing else there has not been a Republican governor in more than 40 years in Oregon.

Now, as for the issues in the coming legislative session:

Balancing the budget:  This doesn’t have to be done officially until the end of the two-year budget period, but if legislators don’t start now the cuts will be a lot deeper later.  This year, they’ll have to offset substantial losses of federal money under Donald Trump.  Cuts in low-income health care will be especially difficult to absorb.

Opposing federal immigration enforcement:  Legislative leaders have their eyes on Minnesota, so they will consider actions to avoid becoming like Minnesota, with so much ice of two kinds – ICE and ice.

Funding transportation:  Voters may decide in May on the gas tax increase, but legislators will have to find a way in the short session to get more money for the state’s major agency, the Department of Transportation, or a slate of layoffs will go into effect.  Which would jeopardize road maintenance and re-building.

This is one of the main issues where the Kotek-Drazan contest likely will come up.  Put simply, Kotek can be expected to want more money through tax increases, believing that road and bridges are important to all Oregonians. Drazan and Dudley don’t want the new taxes, believing there is enough money for transportation without them.

Democrats can do what they want at the Capitol without Republican support.  But, in transportation funding measure last year, they learned about the problems of going-it-alone.

Opponents of the measure got enough signatures to prompt a public vote.  The remaining issue is when the election will occur.  The Ds, now want to move up the election to May instead of November; Republicans are expected to oppose the move, if only to schedule the public vote at the same election with Kotek because some of the votes against gas tax increase could cross-over to vote against Kotek. 

What follows are summaries, in their words, of what Democrats and Republicans want out of the legislative session.

Democrat Priorities

• Immigration defense:  Pushing back against federal mass deportation efforts and moving to restrict U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities in Oregon.
• Community protection:  Prioritizing the preservation of access to healthcare and food assistance.
• Housing and homelessness:  Continuing efforts to increase housing supply and address homelessness.
• Transportation and Infrastructure:  Seeking solutions for transportation funding and infrastructure upgrades, despite deep divisions on how to fund them.
• Fiscal stability:  Managing a potential $15 billion drop in federal support over the next six years, with a focus on closing tax loopholes.

Republican Priorities

• Affordability and cost of living:  Tackling inflation, high consumer costs, and overall economic strain on families.
• Budget management:  Addressing the nearly $900 million shortfall caused by projected federal spending cuts.
• Immigration enforcement:  Pushing for stricter enforcement policies.
• Housing:  Focusing on increasing housing supply to combat costs.
• Economic growth and de-regulation:  Supporting measures to ease business permitting, accelerate job growth, and reduce red tape.
• Transportation funding:  Seeking solutions for road work financing amid revenue declines from EVs and gas efficiency. 

If you look at these words, in some ways they sound good, though they are very general.  Real solutions are tougher.

So, with me, watch with interest because what’s done or not done at the Capitol – including lurking — could affect your pocketbook, as well as your general well-being here in Oregon.