Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

There is a lot of time between now and the next race for governor in Oregon – next November — but if I was the Democrat incumbent here, Tina Kotek, I’d be worried about the election.

There is at least one major reason, at least at the moment.

She will have to run at the same time as a measure will be on the ballot to enable Oregonians to decide whether they support a gas tax increase – an increase Kotek pushed through the Oregon Legislature last year, with help from her Democrat allies.

To put a point on it, some voters who oppose a gas tax increase also could oppose Kotek.

Of course, there is another option, one pointed out by a friend of mine who served in the past in the Legislature, but is now out office in retirement.

He suggested that Kotek and her friends on the D side could use the short legislative session in February to try to cut a new deal on the gas tax and other transportation funding.  One approach would be to nullify the gas tax increase so there is no vote on it in November, which would tend to benefit Kotek in her re-election race.

But, for many Democrats, just trashing the measure might not help those who want transportation funding in order to remove the prospect of huge layoffs of state employees, as well curtail investments in road repair and re-building.

The Oregonian newspaper put the status this way under this headline: Oregonians won’t see gas tax hike in January as opponents secure enough signatures to send issue to ballot

More from the state government reporter Carlos Fuentes:

“The Republican-led group attempting to halt a scheduled increase to Oregon’s transportation taxes has officially submitted enough required signatures to allow voters the final say next November.

“The Secretary of State’s Office announced that it had so far verified 163,451 signatures of the 194,000 submitted by the campaign earlier this month, meaning the organizers far exceeded the roughly 78,000 signatures required.  

The news means Oregonians will no longer see a 6-cent increase to the state’s 40 cents per gallon gas tax or hikes to title and registration fees in January.  It also means the state’s 0.1 per cent payroll tax for transit will not temporarily double as it was set to do.

More from the Oregonian:

“The petitioners’ successful effort marks a major loss for Democrats, who spent much of the year trying to craft a package that would increase funding for the state transportation agency, local governments, and public transit districts.

“After a series of missteps, Democrats approved a plan in a special legislative session this fall that would have raised taxes to a much smaller extent than they initially proposed.”

Still, it was a tax (and fee) increase.

It then fell to Senate Republican Leader Bruce Starr of Dundee and House Representative Ed Diehl of Scio to launch a drive to collect signatures to reach the ballot by “initiative petition.”

It is a bit of a surprise that Starr and Dundee, plus their allies, were able to succeed so quickly.  Normally, getting to the ballot requires loads of money to pay staff to collect signatures.  Volunteer effort rarely works.

This time it did.

Back to politics in the governor’s race.

There is no question but that taxes will be an issue for voters, even if the gas follows by the wayside. 

The likely Republican candidate, Senator Christine Drazan can be expected to pound Kotek as a tax-and-spend liberal Democrat out-of-tune with many Oregonians.

For her part, Kotek will make the case that she has set in motion a full-blown recovery funding for the entire state, which, given some factors statewide, may be a difficult case to make. 

Here is how Oregon Public Broadcasting put it:

Under Kotek’s leadership, “the state has reported high housing costs, dismal school rankings and rising unemployment.  Kotek is pitching herself as the right candidate to stand up to Trump, and contends Oregon is on the cusp of progress if they continue following her lead.”

So, who wins?

Well, it’s far too early to tell.  Months is an eternity in politics.  Plus, over my 40 years in and around politics in Oregon, I have learned that it is not smart to bet on political outcomes. 

Voters have a way of issuing surprising results.