Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

A close friend and I were talking the other day and asked each other if the United States’ historic system of “checks and balances” was still in effect in Trump 2.

We suspected the answer was “no.”  Congress kneels before Donald Trump.  Courts wonder what to do as Trump tells them “to go to ____.”  And, the Supreme Court waits for who knows what.

But, what about public opinion?

It appears Trump doesn’t know or care about it because, of course, he is always the smartest person in the room, unless Elon Musk is there, too, and they share the glory.

Then, today, I read a column in the Washington Post by a solid political reporter, Aaron Blake, who wondered, based on public opinion polls, whether the “Trump honeymoon was over.”

For my part, I didn’t know Trump had one, but Blake’s report in worth reading and pondering.

Here is how he started his column:

“New polling shows Trump’s approval ratings declining and major warning signs are appearing.

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“…Trump came into office claiming a sweeping and historic mandate, but that was always oversold.

“Trump’s win was relatively modest, historically speaking.  And while his approval rating upon taking office reached a new all-time high for him — around 50 per cent — his ‘honeymoon’ phase still paled in comparison with every modern president not named Trump.

“And now, after one month in office, whatever honeymoon (or mandate) Trump enjoyed appears to be slipping away.”

Here is a summary of how Blake made his point:

• Multiple polls this week show Trump’s approval rating dropping into more normal territory for him, in the mid-40s.  A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll crystallizes a number of warning signs for Trump’s agenda of drastic and legally dubious change.

Indeed, Americans seem to be quite concerned by how far Trump is going, and most of his signature policies and initiatives appear to be quite unpopular — especially those spearheaded by billionaire Elon Musk.

• Trump’s approval ratings this week in polls — including the Post-Ipsos poll and others from Reuters, Quinnipiac University, CNN and Gallup — have ranged from 44 per cent to 47 percent.  In all of them, more disapprove than approve of him.
• A big question has been whether Trump’s drastic attempts to overhaul the federal government might hurt him.  And it appears that’s happening.
• Many Americans don’t like his government cuts and tariffs.  But this, of course, depend on what issues pollsters test.  Some loom large as strikes against Trump.

One is Trump tariffs.  The CNN poll shows Americans oppose his tariffs on aluminum and steel by 15 points (49-34), while the Post-Ipsos poll shows nearly 2-to-1 opposition to his 25 per cent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada.  About 7 in 10 Americans think tariffs generally increase the price of products in the United States.

• Many Americans also don’t like firing large numbers of government workers, which is opposed by 19 points (58-39) in the Post-Ipsos poll.
• Americans strongly oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who aren’t criminals (57-39), who arrived as children (70-26) and who have U.S. citizen children (66-30).  That accounts for a huge number of would-be deportees, and it suggests that a true mass-deportation operation could be politically problematic.
• The finding about the firings of government workers gets at one of the biggest emerging strikes against Trump:  Musk.  The writing has been on the wall that Americans are skeptical of the influence suddenly wielded by the world’s richest man, who has spearheaded those firings through the U.S. DOGE Service, which he leads, and the situation appears to have gotten worse.
• Perhaps no Trump action is as unpopular as one of his first ones:  Pardoning virtually all January 6 defendants.  Previous polling has focused only broadly on the pardons, without drilling down on the most controversial among them:  The pardons of violent offenders — those convicted of assaulting police.

Blake acknowledges a big caveat with unpopular policies and efforts — how much people actually view them as affecting their lives.

More from Blake:

“But the new polling does highlight perhaps the most significant emerging problem for Trump:  The economy.  While this has long been his strength, that no longer appears to be the case.

“The Post-Ipsos poll shows Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy 53 to 45.  Those are his worst economic numbers since 2017.  The Reuters poll shows his economic approval at 39 per cent, which is lower than it ever was in his first term.

“It’s possible to read too much into these numbers.  They could be in large part a reflection of continued economic unrest and persistent inflation, rather than anything specific to Trump.

“But the data also suggest that Americans see Trump as misplacing his priorities.”

So, with these polling realities, does Trump care?

I suspect the answer is “no.”  He only cares about himself, so he assumes that he has a God-given right to do what he is doing – and perhaps he views himself as a God in the first place.  Or, at least as a “king” as he described himself yesterday.

This check on Trump – public opinion – may not amount to much, especially as he has nearly four years left in his term.  And, of course, he now says, despite a Constitutional bar, he wants and deserves a third term.

Perish the thought!