Perspective from the 19th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
As Donald Trump ran for president, he made huge promises to crack down on immigration on the southern border of the United States, including the biggest deportation operation ever seen in this country.
His rhetoric on the subject, however false it was, was one of the main factors that put him over the top in the election.
It will be nothing if not interesting to see whether Trump fulfills his pledge. If he doesn’t, of course, he’ll just find an excuse or blame someone else.
Several major hurdles are in the way, none of which, apparently, were worth talking about on the campaign trail where the emphasis from Trump appeared to be, “believe me because I always am the smartest person in the room.”
Hill.com and several major newspapers outlined the hurdles.
Here is a summary:
- Trump and his allies will face a number of legal battles, assuming they even recognize the jurisdiction of courts.
- Trump and his allies don’t have the workforce to match his rhetoric as he has suggested that the nation’s roughly 13 million undocumented migrants could face deportation.
- Trump and his allies will face economic realities as immigrants, with jobs, are shunted aside, leaving many companies in the lurch as they try to find employees.
- Trump and his allies will face what hill.com called “an astronomical budget increase” to fund what he says he wants to achieve, which is an immigrant-free America. [The American Immigration Council estimates deporting the nation’s estimated 13 million undocumented people at a rate of 1 million per year would cost about $88 billion, exceeding the entire current budget of the Department of Homeland Security.]
- Trump and his allies will face something he no doubt will refuse to recognize — limits on executive power. [In his previous administration, some of Trump’s immigration plans weren’t thrown out on the merits but because of issues with how his administration rolled them out.]
- Trump also could face “blue-state resistance” because many immigrants living in the country illegally are often concentrated in big, Democrat-led cities such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Denver.
- Finally, Trump and his allies likely will face lack of cooperation from foreign countries. [The U.S. today can’t simply push migrants back across the border or even load them all onto a flight heading to the same place. It must now orchestrate a complex dance of flights, choosing where to send its limited number of planes and fighting with other governments about when — and whether at all — they are willing to receive the flights.]
So, be ready for Trump to fail in some way, then blame others for his failure.
As I have written before, it also strikes me as unfortunate that Trump ran against immigrants. Many of them, of course, are good people who contribute much to America.
If Trump would have run against “illegal” immigrants, it would have been more understandable, even though it also is true is that, if America’s government wanted to solve the problem, instead of just making political points, there are solutions out there just waiting to be implemented.
So, the immigration debate rolls on – or should it be roils on.