Perspective from the 19th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
The best answer to the question in this blog headline is who knows.
The chief at the start of Donald Trump’s new term is Susie Wiles, who ran Trump’s campaign for a new term in the White House.
In Trump’s first term he had four chiefs of staff and wouldn’t let any of them do the job of running the White House. So, of course, he fired them. Trump always thought he was the smartest person in any room so anyone who had the guts to question him soon was shown the door.
Chris Whipple, the author of “The Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency” and the forthcoming “Uncharted: How Trump Beat Biden, Harris and the Odds in the Wildest Campaign in History,” wrote about this in a recent column for the New York Times.
Here is one of his main points:
“Heading into a second term, Trump will have one advantage that eluded him the first time around: A White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, who was one of Trump’s 2024 campaign co-managers and showed an uncanny ability to impose discipline on his disorder and was widely credited with piloting his political comeback.”
And another point:
“For Wiles, running Trump’s White House effectively may well be a mission impossible. He churned through four White House chiefs in just one term. Three found it almost impossible to impose any order and the fourth, Mark Meadows, really didn’t try; he seemed content to go along with most anything Trump wanted (including many of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election).”
So, does Wiles bear responsibility for some of Trump’s early mistakes, such as proposing to get rid of birthright citizenship and freezing all federal government spending? On the latter, it turned out that the original “federal freeze” order was issued before even coordinating with the White House on the content of the order.
Those mistakes – pure Trump from his first term – occurred on Wiles’ watch and that reality doesn’t bode well for her tenure when issues, national and international, will become even more complex. Such complexity won’t bother Trump – he doesn’t care about details and consequences. But mistakes should bother Wiles.
Or, how about this from Phillip Bump in the Washington Post as he commented on Trump’s performance in meeting with the press to talk about the plane crash in D.C.?
“It wasn’t surprising that Trump turned a gathering ostensibly focused on sharing information with the public into a conversation focused on himself and his politics, that it became an airing of grievances and an effort to pass the buck. No one even moderately familiar with Trump would be taken aback by that. Instead, it was jarring — a visceral reminder of how different Trump’s approach to the position is than any prior president save himself.”
And, even late night hosts Jimmy Kimmel got into the act:
“A terrible thing happened. All he had to do is go out there and say, ‘This is a tragedy,’ offer some comfort to the families, to the military families, promise to get to the bottom of it. But he can’t do that, because he’s callous, he’s racist, he’s sexist, and, most of all, he’s stupid. He’s a deeply stupid man.”
And, what, if anything, does Wiles do about this? Probably nothing because it’s just Trump blabbering on with no evidence behind his invective.
In general, I have paid attention to “chief of staff” issues in Oregon where every governor has one, including the one I worked for in the Administration of Oregon Governor Vic Atiyeh. Her name is Gerry Thompson and she and I are still friends to this day, many years after our time together in the Governor’s Office.
In Oregon and in Washington, D.C., the chief of staff is essentially in the second in power after the governor or president. His or her word goes.
The chief of staff is a “gatekeeper,” guarding the door to the Governor’s Office or the Oval Office because not just anybody can – or should — get in. But, good chiefs also don’t just let those in who agree with the chief officer; they let in others who, without being overbearing, have thoughts to share that a governor or president needs to hear.
According to Whipple, Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan’s final White House chief of staff, once observed that ‘campaigning is trying to destroy your opponents, while governing is making friends with them.’ In his first term as president, Trump did not get the difference, and his tenure was often overwhelmed by dysfunction and chaos.
“Most modern presidents learn, sometimes the hard way, that they can’t govern effectively without empowering their chiefs of staff to execute their agendas. A chief wears many hats: He or she is the president’s gatekeeper, confidant, javelin catcher, enforcer and occasional therapist.
“Understated but imposing and not easily intimidated, Wiles may well be Trump’s best hope of having an effective presidency.”
In trying to manage Trump’s second White House, Whipple says Wiles would do well to consider the model of her predecessor in the role, Jeff Zients, Joe Biden’s second chief of staff.
Zients succeeded Ron Klain, an empowered chief with keen political instincts and a quick Twitter finger who wasn’t afraid to advocate policy.
From Whipple:
“Wiles seems to share with Zients a less extroverted personality and management style. The F.D.R.-era Brownlow Committee once described the ideal White House adviser as having ‘a passion for anonymity.’
“Unlike some larger-than-life chiefs — James Baker under Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, or Leon Panetta under Bill Clinton — Zients fits the private bill, shunning interviews and TV appearances. This under-the-radar approach has also been Wiles’ modus operandi.”
The final resality for Wiles, the campaign manager, now chief of staff, is this:
“When a president-elect goes rogue on the campaign trail, saying something outrageous, that’s one thing. But, if a president goes rogue from the Oval Office, lives can be lost.”
Wiles, Whipple says, may well represent the thin line between the president and disaster.
And, from me, to use the shopworn phrase, “only time will tell.”