Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

This blog headline is how the Oregonian newspaper characterized the details in the next two-year budget (2025-27) released on time this year by Governor Tina Kotek, now in the middle of her first term as Oregon governor.

Before getting into a few details, I well remember the years, as lobbyist or a state government official,  that I waited with great interest – a combination of desire and dread — for December 1.

That’s when, according to state law, governors must release what is called their “Recommended Budget” for the next biennium.

Further, the release is supposed to be a series of recommendations for spending, not proposals for new taxes.

In the past, some governors have ignored this restriction, but this time, it appears that Kotek abided by the constraint.  However, there is little doubt but that, when the legislative session rolls around in January, she will be proposing tax increases in various forms.

And she will have the benefit of super-majority control by Democrats in both the Oregon House and Oregon Senate.  Which means Democrats can pass tax increases, if they choose to so, without Republican support, though it is far too early to predict what will happen when it comes to tax increases because such increases, regardless of party, are always controversial.

I remember, on or near each December 1, standing around near the Governor’s Office in the center of the State Capitol, waiting to get my hands on a copy of the new State of Oregon budget.  It always looked like a phone book in terms of its size.

Then, my attention turned to trying to discern detail in the thick book, which always was difficult to find, in part because such detail was obscured by so many numbers.  Plus, while some budget-makers herald the document for its transparency, it often, instead, is opaque.

At one point, when I worked for state government before I became a lobbyist, I was in charge of developing a “small book” to explain the budget in terms that would make more sense than a tome – important because, imbedded in all of the budget detail, lie important public policy issues that affect where citizens live and work in Oregon.

Back to the Kotek’s budget recommendations.

The Oregonian wrote a general summary this way:

“Governor Tina Kotek doubled down Monday on her calls to devote more state money to reduce Oregon’s homelessness and housing crises, bolster mental health care, and improve outcomes for children, priority areas she’s flagged repeatedly during her first two years in office.

“She did so when revealing her plans for the state’s 2025-27 budget, which she proposes to total $39.3 billion in general and lottery fund spending, up 17 per cent from the one lawmakers approved in 2023.”

Kotek also called for diverting $150 million from the state’s reserve to pay for fighting fires in Oregon, both in the past and in the future.  She has called for a Special Legislative Session this month to do this deed.

Various Kotek priorities:

• She proposed a new attorney in the Oregon Department of Justice who would focus on investigating cases of missing and murdered indigenous people and over $40 million to “protect Oregon values.”

• She proposed more than $700 million to fight homelessness in Oregon, including $218 million for Oregon shelters, $188 million to transition Oregonians out of homelessness, and $173 million to keep people from becoming homeless in the first place.

• She proposed $880 million in new bonding authority for housing production, the bulk of the money going to spur construction of affordable apartments.  The rest would subsidize construction of owner-occupied homes.

• She proposed to add nearly 1,000 mental health treatment beds by the end of 2026, as well as funding for (a) new staff dealing with mental health issues;  (b) expanding  provider rate increases for mental health treatment; and (c) spending money on mental health treatment for children.

• She proposed a $600 million increase in the budget for K-12 state schools, saying she was “a little tired of just always fighting over the state school fund number.”  Though there is little doubt but that such a fight will continue this session.

Not surprisingly, the leader of Republicans in the Senate showed up with a news release under this headline:  “Senate Republican Leader Criticizes Governor’s Bloated Budget Proposal.”

As I said, that is to be expected as Democrats – led by Kotek – and Republicans in the minority in both the House and Senate begin sparring over the budget.  Which stands as the only issue lawmakers have to solve when show up in Salem.

So, what happens now?

Well, legislators and the governor will spend the next seven or eight months coming up with final figures for the budget, where revenue must equal expenditures.

Note that last phrase!  The state’s budget must be in balance, so whatever your view – Democrat, Republican, liberal or conservative – you have no choice but to negotiate within available revenue.

As a lobbyist, I always paid a lot of attention to the budget deliberations because the success of many of my firm’s clients rode on the outcome. However, now, in retirement, I look at all this quickly and without much at stak