Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Those of who are not very smart had to read the story in the Oregonian twice to understand the new information on Oregon’s “kicker law.”

The story appeared under this headline:  “Good-bye to record-breaking kicker tax rebates?  Oregon’s new state economist revamps revenue forecast.”

Let me put it this way:  As tax revenue predictions get more accurate, the amount of the “kicker rebate” will go down.

Here is the situation, according to the Oregonian:

“Official forecasters have been underestimating state revenues for more than a decade, a chronic issue Oregon’s new state economist (Carl Riccadonna) says he plans to fix by reforming the economic model his office uses to predict the state’s finances.

“My mandate joining the office back in September was to really get to the bottom of what’s happening here.

“His conclusion:  Oregon’s old forecasting model has been too pessimistic about the state’s economy and has done a lousy job accounting for how Oregon’s unique tax kicker affects its predictions.”

So, the point, as I noted above — which required the two-time reading — is that forecasts gete closer to reality, the “kicker” amount will go down.

That’s because Oregon’s kicker law – which, depending on your point of view, is either very good or very bad – is triggered when personal income taxes and some other revenue streams come in at least 2 per cent higher than was predicted as legislators set a two-year budget.  When that happens, the “excess money” is “kicked-back” to taxpayers.

Politically, the law has been controversial since it was enacted more than 20 years ago.

Here’s the tension.

• Many Democrats want all the tax money to fund the programs they hold dear, some of which, of course, are supported by other than Democrats.

• Many Republicans contend tax money belongs to payers, so when money arrives above estimates, taxpayers deserve a refund, which many taxpayers want.

That’s oversimplified, but the tension is clear. 

Plus, efforts to get rid of the kicker, either at the Legislature or at the ballot, always have failed.

Back to the Oregonian story:

“Hired in September, Riccadonna holds a job that is both a low-profile one, but also has enormous impact on Oregon’s budget.  That’s because the job holder is in charge of estimating revenue from all taxes and the lottery.  Then, those estimates are used by the Legislature to form the next state two-year budget, as well as to determine the size of the kicker.

“More accurate forecasts would also mean an end to record-breaking kicker refunds, which have fattened taxpayers’ wallets but left Oregon with less money to spend on schools, health care, transportation, and other budget priorities.

“It will be years before it’s clear whether Riccadonna has successfully diagnosed the flaws of prior forecasts and whether his work will produce more accurate predictions, including for the kicker.”

So, as always, watch for your kicker refund.  It is relatively clear that there will be one, but it’s size is not known, at least not yet.