OREGON ELECTION RESULTS OFFER NO MAJOR SURPRISES

Perspective from the 19th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Even as the country focused on a hard-fought presidential election, results in Oregon offered no major surprises.

In many cases, results could have been predicted accurately even before the election.

That means that, in a year when Republicans have claimed the White House, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House, Oregon voters did what they have reliably done for much of this century:  Handed Democrats the reins to state government.

For example:

  • It appears Democrats were successful in securing a supermajority in the Senate. 

[Supermajorities are important because, when they exist, the party in charge has the ability to make decisions on its own without having to seek support across the political aisle.  And that matters mostly when it comes to tax increases, which, if proposed, must start in the Oregon House of Representatives — see next bullet.]

  • It is not clear yet that Democrats will have a super-majority in the House, though a handful of races are too close to call and, if results favor Ds, they could get a supermajority.
  • Democrats continued their dominance in statewide elected races by winning in the Secretary of State, Treasurer and Attorney General races.
  • One congressional race in Oregon changed hands when Democrat Janelle Bynum prevailed over the incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

So, it could be contended that Oregon is out of sync with many parts of the rest of the country, which, by recent media accounts, went to the right, though it also is hard to use political phrases such as “the right” to describe the “why” of Trump’s win.

The fact is that Democrats are in charge in Oeregon and have been for years.  The trend to the left is likely to continue.

As I write this, I remember that the last Republican governor in Oregon was Vic Atiyeh, for whom I had the privilege of working.  Incredibly, that was more than 40 years ago.

Now, as we look forward to the long legislative session in 2025, one of the major issues will be transportation funding where advocates for more say dollars are far too short.  If tax increases are proposed, they will have to originate in the House where, if the current totals –35 to 25 for the Ds – hold, the Ds will have to find one Republican to pass any tax increase on to the Senate.

Another major issue will revolve around the still undecided issue – whether Oregon will be able to compete nationally for new federal semi-conductor investments that, if Oregon succeeds, would mean hundreds of new, high-paying jobs.

A tough part of this for current Oregon Governor Tina Kotek will be whether she will succeed in an effort to designate farmland for such investments.  So far, farm interests are opposing her effort, but, if the land is needed for semi-conductor investments, she could win.

Still, when all is said and done about Oregon’s election, the results will mean that Democrats and Republicans will have to find a way to work together, at least on occasion.

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