Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

On the day of the presidential debate – perhaps the only one – I depart from that federal subject to write about politics in Oregon.

Also, not about the failings of Donald Trump today, though, of course, there is more to write about that, a lot more.

Today, it’s about the Oregon Legislature.

If I was still a lobbyist in Oregon, I’d be thinking a lot about the question in this blog headline.

Why?

Well, 90 legislators in Oregon – some of whom have not been elected or re-elected yet – will be heading soon to Salem for their long legislative session starting after the first of the year.  And they’ll stay for at least five months.

What they’ll do when they are at the State Capitol is open to debate.

And, again, if I was still a lobbyist, I’d be trying to help my clients prepare for what was ahead — good, bad, or indifferent.

For one thing, all the Legislature MUST do in Salem is enact the State of Oregon’s next two-year budget for 2025-27.

Of course, many lawmakers want to do much more.  Which, after all, may be why they launched bids to get elected.

For me, one of the basic issues in a legislative session, in a way, is not a specific issue at all.  It is a question about how 90 legislators and the governor will find a way to get along.  Call it the need for bi-partisanship.

Or, will the session devolve into tension and disagreement.

Think of it this way. 

If you had 90 friends and put them, figuratively at least, in a room together, how would they get along?  Would they agree or disagree?  Probably

depends on what they were asked to do, but the imagery is good in the sense that it helps to understand what legislators will face as they arrive and stay in Salem.

In “their” room, the State Capitol, they have to find a way to get along.

A main factor in any session is the split between Democrats and Republicans.

Some predictions are that Democrats will enjoy super-majorities – three-fifths control — in both the House and the Senate (18 votes in the 30-member Senate and 36 in the 60-member House).  If it comes to pass, that means Democrats will, not only control the political agenda, but they will have enough votes on tax increases to enact such increases without any Republican support if they want to do so.

Plus, Democrats will have control of the central office at the Capitol, the one occupied by Tina Kotek, who is in the middle of her first term as governor, so, if tax increases pass, it is likely she would sign them.

Will Democrats enact tax increases on their own?  Who knows?

But, one reality is that there are “two Oregons” in the state.  One is urban Oregon where many voters, most of them Democrats, tend to want more state government spending, perhaps with higher taxes.

The other is rural Oregon where many voters, most of them Republicans, tend to want less spending and reduced taxes.

Bridging the “two Oregons” will go a long way toward decisions about how the session proceeds.

And, a quick additional note.  Some analysts say there are actually three Oregons – urban, rural, and suburban.   In the latter, it is hard to predict the number of Democrats or Republicans and many suburban districts switch from one party in one election to the other party in the next election.

Finally, here is a quick summary of some other issues facing lawmakers:

• Fires:  Oregon House Republicans are calling on the Legislature to reform forest management and logging policies they say would prevent large fires from starting and spreading.  There also may be a need for more money to fires.

• Housing:  This has been a major issue for Governor Kotek, so it is likely to remain so.

• Water:  Access to water has not been as major an issue in Oregon as it has been in states to the south, but it could become more significant this session.

• Homelessness:  This is linked to housing, but most legislators are not sure what to do about the problem.  Perhaps they should look at Church at the Park in Salem which has made progress on a number of fronts.

• Transportation:  A group of legislators has been making a run around the state to take testimony on what, if anything should be done.  Comments gathered will be used by legislators to craft a transportation package, but because any package could include a gas tax increase, it is not likely to be politically popular.

All of this said, paint me as being very glad I am retired.  I’ll remain active from my post in the cheap seats in Salem, but glad no longer involved directly at the Ca;pitol.