Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

On this Labor Day holiday, I choose to write, not about typical political rallies on such a day as this, but, instead, about a political issue that will roil debates in Oregon for a number of months.

It is this:

If state revenue – read, taxpayer money – arrives in government coffers 2 per cent above previous estimates, should the money stay with the state or be returned to taxpayers?

At the moment, under a law that rests in the Oregon Constitution – it is called the “kicker” law – the money goes back to taxpayers.  Put another way to illustrate the label, it is “kicked” back to taxpayers.

This raises a political issue that has been with us in Oregon since the kicker law was passed in 1979.

Many Democrats, who are in charge in Oregon, want to keep the money to spend on state programs.  By contrast, many Republicans want the money to be kicked back.

So far, those who favor the kicked back approach have won most of the political debates and my sense, again this time, is that the kicker law will stay in place.

The reason:  If you ask taxpayers, most want “their money” back.

The kicker law passed about 40 years ago because those in charge of Oregon’s political process at the time believed it was important to place a lid on how much money government could spend.  Otherwise, the state would just spend ALL the money.

This issue arose again last week as state economists told legislators that more money continues to arrive in state coffers.  As reported by the Oregonian newspaper, the prediction is that Oregonians, in total, will receive a $987 million kicker tax credit in 2026.

On another hand, even with the kicker refund, the increased tax revenue means that lawmakers will have $676 million more than previously expected to allocate in next year’s legislative session.  That, too – more money overall — will argue in favor of the kicker staying in place.

Beyond the kicker, the state’s economy remains stable as inflation rates continue to cool.  There are positive signs, like a low unemployment rate of 4.2 per cent, but there are also challenges, such as ongoing layoffs by some of the state’s largest employers.

Corporate and personal income taxes have outpaced expectations since the last economic forecast in June.  At that time, economists indicated that there was a “50-50 proposition” that Oregonians would receive a kicker tax credit in 2026 of $582 million.  That is now up a bit.

Meanwhile, on another state revenue front, the Legislature will likely consider several potential funding sources for next year’s transportation package, including increasing the gas tax or implementing a tax on the number of miles every Oregonian drives.

Top Republicans have indicated that they will not support any increased or new taxes, but it is possible the 2025 Legislature will feature super-majorities on the part of Democrats, which means they can pass tax increases without any Republican support.

In the old lobbying phrase, “only time will tell.”