Perspective from the 19^th Hole is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Migrants and the crimes they allegedly commit have been a hallmark of Donald Trump’s political campaigns.

By this, he tries to appeal to White folks who believe migrants are the source of their problems.

Is it true?

No.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, German Lopez summarized things this way:

“Republicans suggest that immigrants are especially likely to be criminals.  The data shows the opposite.”

Lopez went on:

“Throughout the first three days of the Republican National Convention, officials highlighted a surge in what they call ‘migrant crime.’  President Biden has welcomed into our country rapists, murderers, even terrorists, and the price that we have paid has been deadly,’ according to Texas Governor Greg Abbot.  (And, I add, Abbot always is a flame thrower; facts don’t matter.)

“The day before, Senator Ted Cruz, also from Texas said, ‘Every day, Americans are dying in crimes committed by migrants.’”

The fact is, Lopez wrote, that there is no migrant crime surge.

“In U.S., rates of crime and immigration have moved in opposite directions in recent years.  After illegal immigration plummeted in 2020, the murder rate rose.  And after illegal immigration spiked in 2021 and 2022, murders plateaued and then fell.

“Over a longer period, there is no relationship between immigration and crime trends.  The number of foreign-born Americans has increased for decades, while the murder rate has gone up and down at different times.”

Of course, Lopez adds, some migrants have committed violent crimes.

“There are more than 45 million immigrants in the U.S., and invariably some of them — just like people of any other group — will do bad things. Similarly, thousands of native-born Americans commit violent crimes in any given week.”

As for the migrant issue in general, I have written about it previously to make three points:

• Migrants are individuals – real people – hoping for a better life in America.  They are real people.
• All of us who live here in the United States have descended in some way from migrants.
• There is no excuse for policymakers in this country – both Republicans and Democrats – for not solving the illegal immigrant problem.  Tough, but possible.
• The last time around, when a solution was moving through Congress, Trump came out vehemently against the solution because, guess what – he would rather run against migrants than solve the problem.

For his part, Lopez, the writer, summarizes the status this way:

“But more immigration has not caused more crime.  The myth that crime is up can perpetuate stereotypes and racism.  Immigrants who arrived in New York recently told The Times that local residents were often hostile.  They make rude comments under their breath or move away in subway cars.  One Venezuelan lamented that people now saw all migrants in the same way: ‘violent.’

That is just not true.  So, as always, as we focus on the upcoming presidential election, it is important to separate fact from fiction.