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IS AMERICA’S TWO-PARTY POLITICAL SYSTEM IN JEOPARDY?

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.  

I wrote the headline for this blog after reading the most recent PEW Research report, which raised a weighty issue:  Are the two political parties in the United States still viable?  

There is evidence on both sides of the question.  

Two reactions from me:  

First, if the two-party system is under stress nationally, why haven’t third-party candidates risen to capitalize on the angst?  

Second, both current parties enjoy strong support from those who identify with them, even if some, like me, are growing tired of the rhetoric from both as they often advocate violence, not compromise.  

Still, one good indication of two-party stress may be that, in Oregon, an Independent gubernatorial candidate, Betsy Johnson, is deemed to have a chance to win the race next November.  

If she does, she would beat Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan.   Here, Kotek stands to get a lot of Democrat votes, but Johnson could take some from her.  Johnson also could take at least a few Republican votes from Drazan. 

So, Johnson plays the role of wildcard, though perhaps not a typical spoiler because she is deemed not to be just that.   

Of course, it is too early to call the race for Johnson, but the fact that she may have a chance is noteworthy.  

PEW Research (by the way, PEW is a family name, not an acronym) started its report this way:  

“Increasingly, Republicans and Democrats view, not just the opposing party but also the people in that party, in a negative light.  Growing shares in each party now describe those in the other party as more closed-minded, dishonest, immoral, and unintelligent than other Americans.  Nearly half of younger adults say they ‘wish there were more parties to choose from.’

According to the PEW report, perhaps the most striking change in American thought is the extent to which partisans view those in the opposing party as immoral.  In 2016, about half of Republicans and slightly more than a third of Democrats said those in the other party were a lot or somewhat more immoral than other Americans. Today, 72 per cent of Republicans regard Democrats as more immoral, and 63 per cent of Democrats say the same about Republicans.

“The pattern is similar with other negative partisan stereotypes:  72 per cent of Republicans and 64 per cent of Democrats say people in the opposing party are more dishonest than other Americans.  Fewer than half in each party said this six years ago.

“Large majorities in both parties also describe those in the other party as more closed-minded than other Americans, and this sentiment also has increased in recent years.”

Yet, PEW writers add, there is one negative trait that Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to link to their political opponents.  A 62 per cent majority of Republicans say Democrats are “more lazy” than other Americans, up from 46 per cent in previous studies in 2019 and 2016.  

Here is the tension in what PEW reports:  Many of those who identify with the two-party system are wedded to it strongly and have no intention of giving anything to anyone but their standard bearers; many others want something different in how Americans participate in politics.

It is too early to tell how all of this will sift and sort itself out in the coming months.

But, for at least one clue, watch Oregon.

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