This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Have you ever wondered why one political poll can produce one result and another poll, even done on the same day, can produce another result?

I have.

And, I say that even after being involved in politics for about 40 years or so, including over many years when I was involved in analyzing polls related to statewide ballot measures or local bond proposals.

KGW-TV, the NBC affiliate based in Portland, took a look at the question the other day as it applied to the governor’s race in Oregon, one where three candidates – a Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent – are believed to have a chance to win next fall.

Specifically, KGW-TV said this on-line:  “We wanted to find out why three different polls showed such different results for the top candidates.”

Three recent polls produced different results.

• A poll conducted by Nelson Research in late May showed Republican Christine Drazan leading the way with 30 per cent of likely voters saying they would pick her.  Democrat Tina Kotek came in second with roughly 28 per cent and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson came in third with roughly 22 per cent. 
• Another poll — paid for by Johnson’s campaign — was conducted July 23-25.  It showed Kotek in the lead with 33 per cent, Johnson in second with 30 per cent, and Drazen in third with 23 per cent. 
• A third poll, paid for by Republicans and conducted July 28-30, showed Drazan leading with 32.4 per cent, Kotek in second with 31.4 per cent and Johnson in third again with 24.4 per cent. 

One of Oregon’s best pollsters, John Horvick, put it this way:

“It’s natural for folks to say, ‘Hey, what’s going on here?  Is this real?  Is there a thumb on the scale from the individual candidates?’  And there is reason for some skepticism.  But I think if we sort of look at the different pieces, there’s also some consistency, and that’s, ‘Who’s at the top right now?”

There are several reasons produce different results.

1. Sometimes there are bad pollsters just as there are in every profession.  You can’t trust the results.
2. Sometimes there are poorly worded-questions which confuse respondents, as well as analysts.
3. Sometimes polls are done by one side to show it has a chance to win – and, again, the results may not be trustworthy.
4. Sometimes it is difficult for polling firms to find respondents who will answer accurately – or, for that matter, when polling by telephone doesn’t work as well as it used to, given that so many people only have cell phones.
5. Often, it is difficult for a pollster to predict election turnout, an understandable challenge when polls are done so far in advance of the election.

Horvick when on to say that transparency is key for any poll to be taken credibly.  Without transparency, he added, it’s easy for voters to get the impression that a candidate is trying to use the results to form their own narrative. 

KGW asked Horvick about the poll paid for by Betsy Johnson’s gubernatorial campaign. 

His response:  “One of the questions on the poll asked participants how favorably they viewed a candidate.  It asked if they would rather vote for a progressive Democrat, a qualified common sense Independent, or a devout Trump Republican — which does not exactly define Christine Drazan.  But she is a Republican, and it does seem to slant the question against her. 

“There’s nothing wrong with the candidate testing a description of their opponent, and to see if that’s going to resonate with voters,” Horvick said. “Now, if they then use that information to then talk about their opponent or talk about themselves, trying to pass that off as a neutral description, voters should look at that and be real critical.”

So, if there is an appropriate conclusion, it is to pay attention to polls, but don’t take them as gospel.  And don’t let results dissuade you from doing your citizenship duty, which is to vote.

Make the last “poll,” the election one, count.