This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

I hate to write this blog, even here in Oregon, 3,000 miles or so west of Joe Biden’s office in the White House.  But, at the same time, I know he has his work cut out for him if he decides to run again in 2024.

Of course, that far off is an eternity in politics.  And the mid-term elections occur first.  But, if the presidential election were held today, it is not clear that Biden would win – or that he would even be the Democrat his party chose to try to keep the White House.

If you accept recent polling, things are bad for Biden more than two years ahead of the election.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I voted for Biden last time around…for two reasons.  First, I thought, given his vast experience, he could rise to the challenge of the presidency.  Second, he represented the best chance to kick Donald Trump out of the Oval Office.  He succeeded on the second challenge; the first is pending.

But, according to polling organization FiveThirtyEight, only President Harry Truman had a lower net approval rating at this point in his presidency than does Biden.

Biden’s net approval sits at minus-16 (a figure obtained by subtracting those who disapprove from those who approve).  The previous record-holder for lowest net approval 541 days into the presidency was a dupe named Trump.  His net approval at this point was minus-11.

Meanwhile, Trump, the worst president in U.S. history, appears to be angling for another term, though he faces the prospect of a variety of legal challenges that could be lodged against him.  He may even announce his intention to run before the mid-terms.

Karl Rove, a long-time Republican political operative who now writes columns for the Wall Street Journal, contends Biden and company are making six missteps toward the 2022 mid-term elections, not to mention the next presidential election in 2024.

It would be possible to view Rove’s perceptions with skepticism because of his clear Republican credentials, but his points still resonate, at least to a degree.

He writes:  “President Biden’s actions this year are a textbook example of how to turn policy challenges into a political disaster.  Like the Kübler-Ross five stages of grief, the six steps of the Biden mid-term strategy start with denial.  The president deals with his mistakes and the dismal economic environment by saying things are better than they really are.”

Here is Rove’s rendition of the six missteps:

1. The chaotic withdrawal from Kabul last August
2. Blaming someone else for the economy’s ills.
3. Changing the subject, especially from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe V. Wade.
4. Blaming Donald Trump (though I add my perspective that Trump deserves whatever blame he receives).
5. Appearing to be doing something, anything.
6. Abandoning ship…as Biden flounders, candidates in tough races will realize that they risk being sucked down as he sinks and begin to distance themselves from the president.

Speaking of abandoning ship, Wall Street Journal columnist Daniel Henninger follows the image by adding:  “The New York Times reported that its poll with Siena College finds 64 per cent of Democrats, not even waiting for the mid-term election results, want their candidate in 2024 to be someone other than the president.  That famous Democrat youth vote? Under 30, they’re down on Biden at a 94 per cent rate.”

For my part, I say it’s too early for Democrats to abandon the Biden ship.

One of the main challenges in assessing Biden, beyond the perceptions of Rove listed above, is that it could be contended the president will be too old to run again two years from now.

On one hand, that could reflect a bias against aging.  But, on the other hand, it strikes me as an accurate assessment.  Age matters. 

Ability to handle a crushing presidential workload?  It matters.  Ability to avoid confusion?  It matters.  Ability to speak clearly?  It matters.

On these counts, Biden faces real challenges, as would anyone pushing 80 years and beyond.

I wish him well, but I also think Democrats should be giving clear thought, probably behind the scenes if that is possible in a social media age, to who could replace him in the next election.  And a major factor in that calculation is who could have the best chance to assure Trump doesn’t land in the presidency again.