KINGMAKER OR ANCHOR:  WHICH WAS TRUMP IN ELECTION?

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

As the most recent election unfolded, there was a question about whether Donald Trump would emerge as kingmaker or be a weight around a candidate’s neck.

At the moment, both are possible.

I arrive at this position after reading a lot of election coverage in the Oregonian newspaper, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and the New York Times – all reliable sources.  They, too, have encountered mixed results on whether Trump is kingmaker or anchor.

The jury is out if only because it will take a few more days for all results to be tabulated around the country, including the race for 5th District congressional seat in Oregon where my friend Kurt Schrader is in a race for his political life.

Regarding Trump, I wish he would just head toward his Mar-A-Lago residence, if he is not already there – and stay there out of the limelight he craves above all else.

We have had way too much of his ruinous ways of dealing with national politics.

Here’s is how hill.com described the status:

“Tuesday’s primaries are fueling questions about the strength of Donald Trump’s endorsement even as the results underscored the extent to which the former president has molded the party in his image.

“While Trump’s favored Senate candidate in North Carolina, Representative Ted Budd won his primary decisively, others who had received his endorsement, including Representative Madison Cawthorn and Idaho Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, were defeated.

“Even more disappointing for Trump, his endorsed candidate in the Pennsylvania Senate primary, Mehmet Oz, remains locked in a tight battle with hedge fund manager Dave McCormick.”

Overall, hill.com continued, “last night’s primaries are far from a defeat for the former president, but they could stoke further questions about the extent to which he can clear primary fields and play kingmaker for the GOP.  It’s a good ticket, but it’s not a golden ticket.”

And, then, as an aside, there was a great line from late night host Jimmy Fallon as reported by the NY Times:  “And while Dr. Oz is in the lead for the Republican nomination, more votes have to be counted because the race is still too close to call.  This is kind of great.  I mean, for once it’s nice to have a doctor waiting for us.”

Beneath the surface of this week’s election there is an interesting irony about Trump.  Often, those on the left and Trump want the same result:  The nomination of the Trumpiest GOP candidate.  Why?  The left wants to run against Trump in the general election and Trump wants to be Trump.

So, one of the questions is who will – or at least who could — rise to lead the Republican party in the next presidential election if Trump’s popularity, as I hope, continues to fall.

There are several possibilities.

Mike Pompeo:  It’s not necessarily a telltale, but dropping a ton of weight and paying big bucks for media training aren’t things you have to do if your goal is merely to be a Fox News pundit.  The former secretary of state and Kansas congressman is a good bet to run if Trump doesn’t.

Chris Sununu: The New Hampshire governor broke some GOP hearts by declining to run for Senate; he would’ve been a major recruit in a key race.

Glenn Youngkin:  Another newcomer is the governor of Virginia. Youngkin’s 2021 win in a blue-leaning state — and the conservative governance that has followed — are going to continue to be cited as a model for the party.

Ted Cruz:  Besides being a crazy man, the U.S. senator from Texas finished second in the 2016 contest, and with that often comes something amounting to front-runner status the next time around.

Tim Scott:  The U.S. senator from South Carolina is raising huge money — $7 million last quarter — for something which should, by all accounts, be a pretty sleepy re-election race.

Donald Trump, Jr.:  Imagine a scenario in which the elder Trump doesn’t run.  Who else on this list is truly ready to lock down a significant majority of Trump supporters?  Perhaps the junior and a prevailing question for me is who would be worse – Trump the older or Trump the younger.

Mike Pence:  The former vice president’s refusal to go along with trying to overturn the 2020 election has led to an extended exercise in massaging the fallout.  He is still trying and could succeed.

Nikki Haley: The former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor has struggled to decide whether she’s angling to run in Trump’s GOP or a post-Trump GOP.  Eventually, she’ll have to decide.

Ron DeSantis:  It seems possible that DeSantis might run even if Trump does not.

Other possible names:  Florida Senator Rick Scott, South Dakota Governor Kristi L. Noem, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, Representative Liz Cheney, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and Texas Governor Greg Abbott

My view:  Some of those listed above have acted like dunces – Trump, Jr. for instance – but, for me, anyone but Trump.

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