FORMING ELECTION RESULT TAKEAWAYS:  AN INEXACT SCIENCE, OR IS IT ART?

This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

In the immediate aftermath of any election – including the one yesterday – it usually is better to let the dust settle a bit before providing any sage analysis.

But no one, so far, has accused me of sagacity.

So here goes – early comments on the election even as all results are not in around the state.

GOVERNOR’S RACE:  It will be nothing if not interesting to see how the general election shakes out.  At least one thing is clear now:  It will be a woman who succeeds Governor Kate Brown next year.

Republican Christine Drazan appears to have won the primary defeating, among others, former state senator Bob Tiernan, Gresham mayor Stan Pulliam, and Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.

She will be running again Democrat Tina Kotek who prevailed among the Ds by a wide margin over a solid candidate, State Treasurer Tobias Read, who, it should be stated, is a friend if mine. 

Someday, he’ll be a good governor.  I hope he runs again.

Independent Betsy Johnson goes directly to the general election and, for one thing, brings a lot of money with her, which is one credential for mounting an aggressive campaign.  Independent candidates don’t usually have much of a chance of winning, but Johnson could be different as many Oregonians search for answers in the top political job in the state.

One interesting fact about the coming race will be this:  Drazan doesn’t much like Kotek because Kotek, then House Speaker, allegedly went back on her word to Drazan and other Republicans in the House over the Legislature’s approach to re-districting. 

Kotek might disagree and, it should be added, I was not there to hear or watch the disagreement, so I just say it could be a factor in the general election.

Further, the Independent Johnson should be able to define differences from Kotek, who carved out a liberal record over her years as House Speaker.  Johnson hews toward the center.  During her career in the State Senate, she was a Democrat, but often voted with Republicans.

5th DISTRICT CONGRESSIONAL SEAT:  I am sorry that the incumbent, Democrat Kurt Schrader, appears to have lost to his D challenger, though nothing is final because a lot of votes in Clackamas County have not been counted yet.

I lobbied Schrader when he served in the State Senate as the reigning expert on the state budget.  He always considered the viewpoints I expressed on behalf of our firm’s clients.  That’s all I could ask for.

In Congress, Schrader carved out a centrist reputation and, unfortunately, that didn’t play in his district, which was re-drawn in the last few months to include, for the first time, Bend.

Here is how Aaron Blake in the Washington Post described Schrader’s loss under this headline:  Biden’s pick in Oregon trails badly.

“It’s worth noting that one of those endorsed — Schrader — is currently losing pretty badly.  Schrader trailed McLeod-Skinner about 61-38 per cent with 53 per cent of the vote in on Wednesday morning.

“Schrader is a moderate who sometimes alienated fellow House Democrats on spending bills — and who, due to redistricting, was campaigning in a very different district than in years past.

“Backing an incumbent facing a primary challenge is kind of a no-brainer for a president, but it’s looking like Oregon voters had little regard for Biden’s advice.”

An overstatement?  Probably.

BITS AND PIECES: 

  • Sorry to note that a friend, Chane Griggs, lost a bid to become Salem’s mayor.  She would have been a good one.
  • Sorry also to note that another friend, Kathleen Harder, lost a bid to win the new 6th Congressional seat that includes Salem.  She would have been a solid Member of Congress.

AND IN CONCLUSION:  I remain glad that I am no longer involved in politics, given the pitted nature of interests in these days. 

I used to be possible, at least in Oregon, to have reasoned discussions with those with whom you might disagree.  Not so much these days as competing interests focus on criticizing each other rather than trying to find middle ground.

And, there I go again, writing about that evaporating subject — middle ground.

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