This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

You couldn’t tell it from the first debate among Democrat candidates for Oregon governor, but the race promises to be one of the most interesting in recent history.

The debate, hosted by the AFL-CIO in Portland last week, did not feature major attacks from any candidates, including the two front-runners.  Both of them, according to a report in the Oregonian newspaper, staked out early positions they hope will carry them to victory in the primary later this spring, not to mention the general election in November.

If victory comes for a D in November, it will be typical for Oregon in the sense that holders of the top political job have been Democrats for more than 35 years since the last Republican, Vic Atiyeh, held the office.  [Full disclosure; I worked for Atiyeh.]

Here’s the way the race looks at the moment:

• There are two major Democrat candidates – long-time, but now former Speaker of the Oregon House, Tina Kotek, and Oregon State Treasurer Tobias Read.  Both have long resumes in Oregon politics and pull essentially from the same set of voters.
• Republican candidates, as usual, have only a long-shot to end up as governor, but one, former Oregon House Minority Leader Christian Drazan, could be lightning rod if only because she detests Kotek.  Of course, she would have to win the R primary and Kotek the D primary for the two to face-off next fall.  But, even in the primary, look for Drazan to go after Kotek.
• Independent candidate, former Oregon State Senator Betsy Johnson appears headed toward having a chance in the general election, contrary to most previous independent candidacies in the state.  Johnson has been raising a lot of money and gaining the support of high-level political interests in the state, including some with boat-loads of money, which they will channel to her race.

Money isn’t always the final answer in politics, but ability to raise it is a test of an aspirant’s credentials.  So, on that score, Johnson gives a clear impression of being “in the race.”

About seven months before the general election, not to mention the primary, only a fool would hazard predictions of what will happen in the election.  Ever a fool, here I go.

First, my sense is that Kotek will prevail over Read, though with the political stature of both, it could be a close race.  Kotek will gain most of the big-money contributions from public employee unions and that likely will push her to a win, though Read no doubt will tout an endorsement from the Oregon Teamsters, as well as a record that is to the right of Kotek, even though still in the centrist left of the D party.

Second, it is not clear who will win the Republican primary.  The one with the most name familiarity, Salem doctor Bud Pierce, ran and lost last time around to Governor Kate Brown, but, as in the past, much of his political credentials do not escape Salem and Marion County. 

If I were betting today, I’d put my money on Drazan.

Third, Johnson is setting herself up for a strong run in the general election (as independent, she does not have to run in a primary) touting her Democrat credentials in the Oregon Senate, but also her clear ability to work with Republicans, which is what she did in the Senate, sometimes to the consternation of the Democrat Senate Caucus to which she “belonged.”

Last week, here in La Quinta, California, I met with one of my long-time friends, a very well-connected Oregonian who gave up his Republican registration a few years ago, given how far Donald Trump and cronies have pushed Republicans to the edge of sanity and reason, if not beyond.

This friend, a supporter of Johnson, put it very well when he said this:

“Betsy Johnson has a very real possibility to win in Oregon.  Not probable, but a possibility.”

I agree.  This friend is closer to the action in Oregon than I am, but it strikes me that Oregon may be ready for a political leader closer to the center than  the left.

I, for one, am ready for a real race for governor, one that gives Oregon voters a genuine choice – and that includes an independent candidate, Johnson.

As an independent myself, I cannot vote in a primary, so I look forward to a spirited race – a potential barn-burner as this blog headline suggests – as I decide how to cast my vote.