This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write. I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf. The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie. And it is where you want to be on a golf course.
Say what you will about Republican political operative Karl Rove, every once in awhile he makes a good point as he writes a column for the Wall Street Journal.
Today was one of those days.
In a column excoriating Democrat Congressional Campaign Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney for contending that Democrats can continue controlling the U.S. House in the next election, Rove wrote this:
“One large factor could help Democrats, though it’s unlikely to sustain their majority. Maloney was directionally correct in February when he pooh-poohed GOP chances saying, ‘They have no more ideas.’
“To maximize their gains, Republican candidates must prove him wrong by each offering their agenda and explaining what they’re for with as much passion as they describe what they’re against. They must make the mid-term about future possibilities, not past grievances. That should be obvious, but in today’s GOP, it isn’t.
“Republicans have the opportunity to put forward a positive governing agenda, focused on the economy and values. They’re the only thing in the way of that agenda’s creation and the GOP victory that would follow.”
Otherwise, Rove contended that Republicans will re-take the House as they capitalize on six factors he contended work against House Democrats. His naming of the six:
- First, history. Democrats hold the House narrowly, 220-212. Since the emergence of America’s two-party system in the mid-1820s, there have been 36 first mid-term elections. In only two has the president’s party gained House seats—1934 and 2002. Take any starting point and it’s the same story: Since World War II, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of 28 seats in its first midterm; since 1900, 32; since the mid-1820s, 34.
- Second, the nature of mid-term elections. They’re inevitably referendums on the Administration’s conduct. Voter expectations, even after a close election, are higher than most presidents can meet. Even if many voters are happy, the discontented and disappointed disproportionately turn out.
- Third, redistricting. Republicans control that process in states with 187 House seats, to only 75 for Democrats. The other 173 seats are in states with a single member or where power to define districts is split between the parties or vested in an independent commission. Even as each party uses its power to maximize its advantage, redistricting alone could give the GOP the handful of seats it needs to control the House.
- Fourth, the Democrats’ internal war. The rift between Democrats like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and more-traditional liberal and centrist Democrats is widening. Issues, events, personalities, showboating and primaries will aggravate matters.
- Fifth, it’s hard to imagine President Joe Biden effectively barnstorming key battlegrounds next year, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s substantially less popular than he is, can’t fill that gap. Both are plodding, one might even say boring, campaigners.
- Finally, the ground was not well prepared for this ambitious Democrat agenda. Voters don’t like expensive surprises. Swing voters, in particular, appear to be put off by the price tag and vast expansion of federal power. The more they hear about Biden’s agenda, the less they probably like it.
It’s far too early to tell if Rove is right in his calculus, though he still apparently spends much of his time reading the tea leaves of polling. And, of course, by his past and current perspectives, he almost always veers right.
But the point I made earlier in this blog resonates. It’s better for politicians who want to lead the nation to be for something, not just against everything.
Give voters proposals to consider, not just the “no.”
And that applies both to Republicans and to Democrats.