PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

The Oregonian newspaper produced a story recently indicating who might be thinking of running for governor when the current one, Kate Brown, reaches the end of her time in the state’s top political job.

What was interesting, though not surprising:  Not one Republican name made the top list.

That’s because Republicans have great difficulty surmounting the Democrat registration edge in the state’s urban areas.  There has not been a Republican governor for more than 35 years.  Vic Atiyeh was the last one and, as the preamble to this blog indicates, it was my please to work for him.

Chris Dudley came close in a race against John Kitzhaber – he, Dudley, won 29 of Oregon’s 36 counties.  He just couldn’t offset Kitzhaber’s edge in Multnomah County and other urban areas.

Under this headline — Many Oregon Democrats eye 2022 governor’s race, 1st competitive intra-party contest in a decade — the Oregonian listed these Democrats as considering the race:

• Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum
• Oregon Treasurer Tobias Read
• Oregon Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle
• Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek
• Multnomah County Commission Chair Deborah Kafoury.
• Oregon Senator Betsy Johnson

Thus, for the first time in many years, there is a prospect for a competitive Democrat primary.  It appears to be fueling fundraising and campaign activity by these top officials, in what would normally be a downtime after the November 2020 election.

Beaverton area Democrat Read already has raised $100,000 this year and spent $50,000, according to campaign finance records.

Rosenblum, from Portland, has also been spending on political consultants and fundraising this year, after winning re-election last year to a third term as Attorney General.

Speculation also has arisen that Oregon’s new Secretary of State Shemia Fagan might want to run for governor.  A Democrat from the Portland area, she has continued to send a flurry of campaign emails since she took office in January, but, in fact, also told The Oregonian/oregonlive she is not running for governor and intends to serve her full four-year term as secretary of state.  We’ll see.

The state’s last seriously contested Democrat primary occurred in 2010 when former governor Kitzhaber ran against former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury.  Kitzhaber ended up trouncing Bradbury 65 per cent to 30 per cent.  Kitzhaber’s resignation in early 2015 pushed Brown into the role as the incumbent governor.  Voters elected and re-elected her in 2016 and 2018, which means she cannot run again.

Back to the other issue here – where are the Republicans?

Over the weeks down here in La Quinta, California for the winter, I have found time to talk, between golf games, to a couple seasoned Oregon political observers who also are friends.  The two used to be Republicans, but renounced the label when they could no longer tolerate the style of former President Donald Trump.

Still, they keep track of Oregon politics.

Their answer and mine.

None of us could think of a Republican who has a ghost of a chance to run for governor – or, perhaps more accurately, actually to be governor.

Where in the world are the Republicans?  I say that not because I automatically want a Republican to win.  I say it because, if there were a Republican candidate for governor, all of us who vote would have a choice to make at the ballot.