PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE:  This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf.  Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon (Les AuCoin), as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist.  This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.  I could have called this blog “Middle Ground,” for that is what I long for in both politics and golf.  The middle ground is often where the best public policy decisions lie.  And it is where you want to be on a golf course.

Money talks in politics.

Perhaps not always, but usually.

If you are running for political office, you want to have more cash than your opponent.

So it is that my former firm, CFM Advocates, reports that huge donations of cash have been made  in Oregon races – and will continue to be made – as everyone drives toward election day.

By the way, the phrase “election day” may not have the meaning this year that it has in the past.  At the close of election day Wednesday, we may know what happens in local, regional and state races, but national results may take days, if not weeks, to emerge.

Here’s how my old firm described the cascade of cash:

“In the 2020 general election, legislative Republicans want to erode Democrat supermajorities in the House and Senate.  Legislative Democrats want to enlarge their House and Senate majority so they have quorums without relying on any GOP member.

“Both sides are expressing optimism. Turnout will once again be the X-factor.”

Turnout appears to very high at the moment, perhaps compelled, at least in part by the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Salem Reporter says that “more than half of registered voters in Oregon have already returned their signed and completed ballots. With 52 per cent of ballots already cast, Oregonians are voting earlier than in any of the past three presidential elections.  Oregon has a knack for high voter turnout — 80 per cent and 82 pr cent in the past two presidential elections.  Experts are predicting even larger numbers this year.”

Here’s what at stake in elections for the Oregon Legislature.

At the moment, Democrats control the Senate 18-12 and the House 38-22.  They need to pick up two seats in both chambers to have a quorum-proof majority.  If not that type of gain, Democrats need to retain all 18 seats in the Senate and at least 36 House seats to preserve supermajorities that allow them raise to new taxes without Republican votes.

House GOP Leader Christine Drazan, R-Canby, says it will be hard for Democrats to defend such a large majority.  But Senate Majority Leader Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego, predicts a “blue wave” of Democrat voters.

Election suspense centers on a handful of races in districts with retiring incumbents, appointed legislative replacements or areas with changing voter demographics.

The best example of the latter is House District 54 in Bend. The Republican incumbent is freshman Representative Cheri Helt who won in 2018 after her Democratic opponent was politically wounded by a sexual harassment charge.  Helt is a political moderate and was one of the Republicans who didn’t walk out in the special session earlier this year.

However, Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one in Helt’s

district.  Her Democrat challenger, Jason Kropf, a deputy district attorney, has raised $800,000 and may benefit from energized Democrat voters in a presidential election year.

Also in the Bend area, GOP Senator Tim Knopp has raised more than $1 million to defend his Senate District 27 seat against Eileen Kiely, a Navy veteran and retired Daimler Trucks executive who has collected $500,000 for her campaign.
Democrats have a registration edge in Knopp’s district, though not as large as House District 54.

A few other highlights a few hours before election day – and, for this list, I am indebted to colleagues at my old firm:

• Republicans are trying to flip back House District 52 in Hood River, which Democrat Representative Anna Williams captured in 2018, unseating Jeff Helfrich who was appointed to the formerly GOP seat.  Helfrich is mounting a comeback candidacy in a race marked by a combined $800,000 in campaign spending.

• The retirement of three Democratic incumbents on the Oregon Coast – Senator Arnie Roblan and Representative Caddy McKeown, both from Coos Bay, and Representative Tiffany Mitchell of Astoria – has created promising openings for Republicans in territory carried by Trump in 2016.

Republican candidates have tried to turn these races into referenda on “Portland politics.”  Democrat leaders have countered with charges of “Trumpian tactics.”

• Senator Denyc Boles, R-Salem, who was appointed last year to replace the late Senator Jackie Winters, faces a serious challenge from Deb Patterson, a pastor in her second bid for the seat.  Patterson lost to Winters by 8 percentage points in 2018.

Boles and Patterson both have raised $800,000, which has paid for some of this cycle’s most negative television advertising.

• A possible upset-in-the-making could occur in House District 47 in East Portland where Democrat Representative Diego Hernandez is seeking re-election to a third term, despite urging from House Speaker Tina Kotek to resign because of allegations he sexually harassed seven women at the state Capitol.

Hernandez is being challenged in the general election by community organizer Ashton Simpson of the Oregon Working Families Party.

If Simpson managed to win, he would be the first non-major-party candidate to win an Oregon legislative seat since Charles Hanlon, running as an independent in 1974, defeated incumbent Democrat Senate Majority Leader Bill Holmstrom, who was caught in a scandal.

• Congressman Peter DeFazio, seeking his 18^th term, is facing a stiffer-than-anticipated re-election bid from Alex Skarlatos, who vaulted to fame when he and his fellow soldiers thwarted a terrorist attempt on a French train.

Skarlatos has received $3.9 million in campaign contributions in his bid to unseat DeFazio, who chairs the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

• State Senator Cliff Bentz, who won a contentious GOP primary, is expected to coast to victory in the 2^nd Congressional District seat vacated by retiring Congressman Greg Walden.

Enough.  You get the picture.  A lot is at stake.