PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

In a way, the next big thing for state government has already started even as the first big thing – the coronavirus pandemic – continues.

What is the next big thing?

It is a huge threat to the State of Oregon government budget, which is heavily tied to personal and corporate income tax revenue.

In this blog, I set out to achieve two objectives: First, to summarize aspects of the “next big thing,” and, second, to propose a list of questions public officials should ask as they chart a new budget path.

Before long, we’ll get confirmation of the huge hole in tax revenue due to the economic shutdown.

Governor Kate Brown already has directed state agencies to prepare for almost $2 billion in cuts of “general funds” (income tax revenue) for the current two-year budget cycle.

In a memo issued to agency directors, the state’s chief financial officers directed agencies to submit plans for 8.5 per cent cuts in their general fund spending for the two-year budget cycle, a scenario that would reflect what budget officials believe is likely a worst-case outcome for the current two-year budget cycle.

Agencies funded by “user funds” also will be involved in the budget-cutting exercise (see below).

So, the hit will fall on the K-12 education funding, Higher Education, the Department of Human Services, the Oregon Health Authority, the Department of Corrections, the Department of Transportation and Travel Oregon, among others.

According to Oregon Public Broadcasting, the governor’s order — the most notable cost-cutting step Brown has taken to date — occurs against a dramatic change of fortunes for state finances. As recently as March, forecasters anticipated the state would bring in $1.15 billion more than what it planned to spend in the current budget.

That was before the COVID-19 pandemic forced major hits to some of the state’s largest revenue sources: Income and business taxes that make up the vast majority of the state’s general fund, lottery revenues decimated by bar and restaurant closures, taxes on fuel and heavy trucks, and user fees that benefit a range of different agencies.

“Clearly the state budget will take a hit, just like all private sector businesses have taken a hit to their revenues [and] workers have taken hits to their paychecks,” according to Josh Lehner, Oregon state economist. “That translates even more than one-for-one into reductions in-state resources.”

The prospect of state budget cuts arise against a backdrop of consideration in Congress to make grants to local government in the next round of coronavirus relief. But, regardless of the extremity of the circumstances in many states, including Oregon, action by Congress is far from assured.

It is bound up in tension between Democrats and Republicans — Democrats want relief for local governments; Republicans want liability protection for businesses.

Never the twain shall meet, though it could be possible for both sides to get at least a measure of what they want. Call it compromise.

Agencies in Oregon outside the general fund will not be immune from budget cutbacks. For instance, the Oregon Department of Transportation, which relies on fuel and heavy trucks taxes for much of its funding, said in a recent report that an ongoing steep reduction in driving could result in a $120 million hit to the State Highway Fund.

Meanwhile, cuts are going to be far steeper at Travel Oregon, a semi-independent agency that relies on the state’s transient lodging tax for nearly all of its funding. With travel and tourism halted in the pandemic, stays at hotels and vacation rentals that pay the tax are plummeting, and the speed of any rebound is uncertain.

So, against this formidable backdrop, even as the phase of government shutdowns could be abating just a bit, here are three questions public officials should ask as they face the budget challenge.

Do so, perhaps in special legislative session (which has not yet been called), could avoide just a flat, across-the-board approach.

What is the specific problem a budget line item is supposed to support?

This question is seldom raised or even discussed. Yet, it should be, especially now. Too often, it has been business as usual. But, if the cuts are deep enough – and they will be — the reality will call for asking this hard question, as well as answering it.

Is there an appropriate role for government to play?

This is an even more basic question that tests another often-ignored issue.

If there is a role for government, what does the state expect to get for the money it spends? In other words, what is the expected return on investment?

Return on investment often is a foreign concept in the halls of the Legislature. But, even more, amidst the coronavirus pandemic, the question is worth asking. What results are programs supposed to achieve? And, if they don’t produce those results, cut them.

Answering these questions won’t remove the pain of budget cutting, both for state government employees, school district employees, the kids they teach, and Oregonians who depend on state services. But, answering the questions well and candidly will be critical as the state charts a new budget course, one that contemplates a reduced role for state government.

That reduced role is an obligation because, when the day is done, in contrast to the federal government, state government must operate within a balanced budget.

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

The headline in this blog proposes what I hope will be true.

The moment when Donald Trump advocated people ingesting poisonous cleaners to rid themselves of the coronavirus may stand at the beginning of the end for Trump.

At least that’s what Washington Post columnist Michael Gerson posits this morning.

Here is how he put it:

“President Trump’s April 23 White House briefing — in which he proposed a novel coronavirus research agenda of injected or ingested disinfectants — may be remembered as the moment his schtick finally failed.

“Of course, there have been plenty of other examples of arrogant ignorance. Trump has made a career of career-ending gaffes. After each, he has picked himself up, dusted himself off, and embraced idiocy with renewed dedication and enthusiasm.”

Over the last three years, I’ve heard a lot of words used to describe Trump, who stands, for me, as the worst president in this country’s history. But, Gerson’s column uses a new one – “schitick.”

The dictionary defines the word: “a routine or piece of business inserted to gain a laugh or draw attention to oneself.”

Sounds exactly like Trump.

I have used a lot of words to describe himn, including “buffoon,” which is how he acts as president.

I also have said that Trump fails any test of political leadership, which I have described as involving such credentials as (a) integrity, (b) accountability, (c) ability to compromise (for the public good), (d) ability to communicate (including words in a sentence that make sense), (e) empathy, and (f) humility.

On all counts, Trump fails.

So, with Gerson, I hope Trump’s “schtick finally fails.”

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

Through the coronavirus pandemic, I have been one of the lucky ones in this country who have had access to a golf course.

Then, I read an article in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend that appeared under this headline:

“A round of golf provides trivial frustrations and triumphs that feel so welcome”

Sports columnist Barry Svrluga wrote this:

“The PGA Tour is scheduled to resume competition as of July 11. I’m not here to predict whether that will happen or should happen. What I’m here to do: Throw my clubs in the back of the car, lace up the (soft) spikes and see what playing golf feels like in the midst of a crippling pandemic.

“A normal drive to the golf course can be loaded with feelings: Anticipation and excitement, but maybe even angst and anxiety depending on the state of my game and the stature of the course that awaits. This drive — my first to a golf course in 6½ weeks — brought an unusual amount of apprehension.”

That’s because, for Svrluga, golf courses in the District of Columbia and Maryland have been closed by order of their respective governments. Coronavirus has impacted all sorts of businesses, but particularly those deemed non-essential, and there’s little hope in arguing that golf courses should take on an “essential” label.

But in Virginia – as is the case in Oregon — if local and county officials feel as if it’s safe to be open, golf is allowed.

So, is golf safe during the pandemic?

I think the answer can be yes, with appropriate restrictions and safeguards.

“I do think that golf is one of the relatively safer sports to play in this era of the pandemic,” says Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security who is an expert in infectious diseases. “It naturally engenders itself to social distancing. It’s not a contact sport. It’s played outdoors. And there are ways to modify it to reduce the risks.”

Here in Salem, Oregon, my friends and I have been fortunate to play Illahe Hills Golf and Country Club throughout the pandemic.

We have done so with various restrictions, including:

• Maintaining social distance
• Limiting golf carts to one person
• Leaving flagsticks in the golf hole (with a sleeve at the bottom of the flag to make sure the golf ball doesn’t go all the way down)
• Taking rakes out of the bunkers.

All this has been possible because the Golf Alliance of Oregon was able to get this explanation from the Business Oregon Department in the immediate aftermath of Governor Kate Brown’s “Stay at Home” order:

“Golf is allowed as long as the social distancing measures are in place, country club activities for a gathering would not be allowed. We categorized golf similar to a hike or outdoor activity, rather than through “essential travel” which is meant to stop vacations.

In the spirit of full disclosure, as a member of the Board of Directors of the Oregon Golf Association (which is part of the Golf Alliance), I counseled against asking the Governor’s Office for clarification of its order as it pertained to golf.

I thought there was room within the specific words in the order to allow golf “as an outdoor activity,” and I thought it was best not to raise the issue for fear of generating a negative answer.

Fortunately, my advice didn’t matter.  Someone else called the governor’s staff and got the good answer quoted above.

So, we continued playing golf.

The fact we have done so is a tribute to the management and staff at Illahe Hills. They have done a masterful job of maintaining an important activity for home-bound folks in a way that keeps players safe.

The number of those who have played golf here has been steeply on the rise. On a normal day – remember those pre-coronavirus days? – about 50 players would have been on the course. These days, the numbers have topped 150.

According to the Wall Street Journal article, the Johns Hopkins scholar mentioned above put it very well when she said: “The virus isn’t going anywhere. It’s here until we have a vaccine. But if your choice is playing rugby or playing golf, it’s clear which one is less likely to be risky. As this social distancing continues, golf is something that I think is a relatively safe activity.”

Good.

And I am one who will never take for granted all of the good work that has allowed me to continue playing the game I love – not for score, but for “the love of the game” and for friends who enjoy it with me.

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

Many of us have put traveling on hold during the coronavirus pandemic. For good reason.

Better to be stuck at home than stuck somewhere else.

A piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday struck a chord with me as it advocated “dealing with wanderlust by looking backward.”

Backward at past trips you have taken and remembering the great experiences of those trips.

As the author, Danny Heitman, put it, “For homebound travelers, a glance at the road in the rearview mirror has pleasures of its own.”

Heitman continued:

“Last autumn, my wife and I traveled to England and France for our 25th wedding anniversary, a trip we almost didn’t take. There were a hundred reasons not to go, and we’d considered delaying our second honeymoon until this spring, but we went ahead anyway. Now, as a pandemic makes such travel impossible, we’re glad we took the plunge when we did.

“All of this came to mind a few weeks ago as I was clearing our household study so I could join millions of other Americans in working from home. That’s when I came across a thick manila folder filled with pamphlets, playbills and receipts from our trans-Atlantic idyll.

“Out spilled the store map from Harrod’s, the iconic London department store where we savored ice cream and tea on a drizzly October evening. A brochure brought me back to Samuel Johnson’s old house near Fleet Street, another favorite spot. A rail pass reminded me of our day trip to Paris—and of strolling arm in arm along a stone bridge crossing the Seine.”

For me, the good news of past trips is that my wife, Nancy, has been very good at taking photos that memorialize fond memories. Looking back at those photos these days is a great escape.

Similarly, daughter, Lissy, has done a great job of collecting photos and other memorabilia and binding them in books that on our coffee tables – but not just “sit;” we look at the grreat photos often.

So, if you, like me, are tried of being housebound, take the great escape of looking at photos of past trips. Revel in the memories.

Heitman closes with this:

“With jets grounded and itineraries dashed, prospective tourists can’t know for sure where they’re going or when they’ll get there. But in this peculiar pause, homebound travelers have a rare chance to think more deeply about where they’ve been.

“That’s a real gift, since technology has both enlarged our capacity to collect travel memories and indulge the backward glance.”

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

I have thought a lot about the words in the headline as all of us are contending with stay-at-home orders during the coronavirus pandemic.

Frankly, it is easy to lose perspective.

I try to maintain mine by reading all I can about the pandemic, but limiting my reading mostly in the morning as I would have done if we didn’t have on-line media sources and simply read the morning newspaper

There is another way to maintain perspective. It is to think about past issues that have faced this world, issues which rival, if not surpass, this pandemic.

This came to mind as my wife, Nancy, pointed out something she read, which was called “A Time for Perspective.” I found the piece on-line in Village-News.com by writer Barry Evans.

I reprint it here.

“Having perspective is good, but using it is better.  I received what is written below from a friend. I do not know who wrote it, but I think it makes an excellent point relative to what is occurring now.

“We probably all think that it’s a mess out there now. Hard to discern between what’s a real threat and what is just simple panic and hysteria. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900. Many would think that that was a pretty simple time of life. Then on your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war, including many of your friends who volunteered to defend freedom in Europe.

“Later in the year, a Spanish flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million. On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25 per cent, the World GDP drops 27 per cent. That runs until you are 38. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.   If you were lucky, you had a job that paid $300 a year, a dollar a day.

“When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet, but don’t try to catch your breath.  If you lived in London, England or most of continental Europe, bombing of your neighborhood, or invasion of your country by foreign soldiers along with their tank and artillery was a daily event.  Thousands of Canadian young men joined the army to defend liberty with their lives.  Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.

“At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. At 55, the Vietnam War begins and doesn’t end for 20 years. 4 million people perish in that conflict.  On your 62nd birthday there is the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, could have ended.  Sensible leaders prevented that from happening.

“In 2020, we have the COVID-19 pandemic. Thousands have died; it feels pretty dangerous; and it is.  Now think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How do you think they survived all of the above?  When you were a kid in 1965, you didn’t think your 65-year-old grandparents understood how hard school was, and how mean that kid in your class was.

“Yet, they survived through everything listed above.  Perspective is an amazing art. Refined as time goes on, and very enlightening.  So, let’s try and keep things in perspective.  Let’s be smart, we are all in this together.  Let’s help each other out, and we will get through all of this.”

So, perspective comes for me in remembering only the travails listed above I have lived through – the tail end and recovery from World War II, the Korean War (though, as a child, I don’t remember much about it), the Vietnam War (which dominated my college years), previous recessions, and the 9-11 attack.

We have been through trials before and that doesn’t make the current one any easier…it just helps to put the current travail in context.

Keep perspective as we stay together in new ways.

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

Friends of mine scolded me earlier this week for including golf courses I had already played on my bucket list of courses I wanted to play.

I know it was in jest, but, still, I wanted to play the courses again, so listed them.

I thought a golf bucket list was meant, like the movie of the same name, to include golf courses where you want to play before you die regardless of whether you had been there before.

But, chastened by the conversation, here is my bucket list of new golf courses I want to play.

PEBBLE BEACH: This iconic track in California actually was on my first list – the only one I had not played among courses I named last time around. So I include it here again, recognizing the status of a course that has hosted a number of U.S. Opens and other high-profile events.

I think, but do not know, that I want to fork over more than $500 to play 18 holes.

PINE VALLEY: This course in Southern New Jersey is always rated #1 of The Top 100 Courses around the country as ranked by Golf Digest magazine. I hope they’d welcome me there.

PINEHURST: This course in North Carolina – actually eight courses – also is ranked highly and has hosted PGA Tour majors at the acclaimed Pinehurst #2. Someday, if I ever get to the East Coast again.

HILTON HEAD: Actually there are 24 courses on this island just off the coast of South Carolina. The one I want to play is Harbour Town Golf Links with the oft-photographed lighthouse near the 18^th hole. It hosts a PGA Tour event immediately after the Masters, so I always view the tournament at TV still sitting in my Masters chair in my man cave.

TPC SAWGRASS: The 17^th hole island green is the most famous hole on this course which, each year, hosts The Players Championship. The course is celebrating its 40^th year as it sits about 12 miles from Jacksonville, Florida

THE GREENBRIER: There are three major courses here in the mountains of West Virginia – The Old White (named after Old White Hotel, which stood on the property from 1858 through 1922), The Meadows, and The Greenbrier.

I’d play any of them, but might prefer The Greenbrier, which has hosted a PGA Tour event, stands as the only resort course in the world to have hosted both The Ryder Cup and The Solheim Cup, and was re-built a few years ago after a major flood ravaged many of the greens and fairways.

Okay, all of this said, am I serious about this golf bucket list? Not necessarily.

I have had the great privilege of playing a lot of golf, including manhy times on my home track, Illahe Hills Golf Club in Salem, Oregon, not to mention five trips to Scotland, the home of golf.  In all, I have had the privilege of playing more than 200 individual courses, not a record, but, for me, a satisfying list.

So, if I never play the courses listed above, so be it. Golf has been a great outlet for me – both of terms of activity and building friendships — and that stands no matter what the future holds.