PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus to use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as press secretary in Washington, D.C. for a Democrat Congressman from Oregon, as an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, as press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and as a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

Oregon Senate Republicans are still on the lam and there is no way to see how this political tussle will end, though late word appears to be that Senate Democrats may not have the votes to pass the controversial cap-and-trade bill on their own.

If that is, in fact, the case, Republicans may decided to return to Salem, though some of them say need any agreement in writing so what one called a “head feint” does not work against their wishes to see cap-and-trade die.

The issue is controversial enough that the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed up this week with a story that began on the front page summarizing the status. For one thing, the WSJ carried a photo of Senator Tim Knopp, R-Bend, as he stood in a campground in Idaho out of the reach of Oregon State police officers who had been dispatched to find Knopp and his colleagues.

It Republicans don’t return to provide a quorum (20 senators are necessary and, otherwise, the Democrats have “only” 18, and, though that is a super-majority, still not enough to act on the Senate floor), a number of pieces legislation will die.

Bills have to pass by June 30, the deadline, by law, for the session to end. If action is not taken by that date, the bills automatically due.

And, in one case – the so-called “cap and trade bill” — Republicans won’t care because they want that bill to die. Or at least find the in-charge Democrats to be more open to amendments the Republicans contend would protect rural Oregon.

The Rs call cap-and-trade a Portland centric bill that will mean economic harm for anything and anyone east of the Cascades.

Here, based on reporting by the Oregonian, are a few more facts about the walk-out:

Is it unusual is it for Oregon lawmakers in one party to flee the state to stop action on a bill?

During the last 20 years, there were two high-profile walk-outs prior to this session. In 2001, Oregon House Democrats left the Capitol and hid out for nearly a week to stop a vote on a Republican legislative redistricting bill. Since the governor was also a Democrat, House lawmakers did not have to worry that he would send state troopers after them.

The second incident was in 2007, when Senate Republicans denied Democrats a quorum in order to block a plan to convert $300 million in corporate tax refunds to a state rainy day fund. Senate President Peter Courtney dispatched state troopers to Oregon State University where then-Senators Frank Morse of Corvallis and Roger Beyer of Molalla were watching the Beavers’ opening game. Troopers chastised both men, but ultimately didn’t have to bring them back: Democrats were only one member shy of a quorum and then-Senator Ted Ferrioli, R-John Day, agreed to return to the floor.

Are Democrats refusing to listen to Republicans and compromise at all?

Republicans have repeated this line, but it may not be entirely accurate. Democrats have made significant concessions to specific industry groups, including electric and natural gas utilities and the state’s entire industrial sector. They’ve also added provisions to blunt the policy’s impact on low-income Oregonians. But they have voted down or refused to hear amendments – some of them from Republicans and others authored by industry groups — that they feel would remove enough teeth to make the legislation useless.

So, Senate Republicans – clearly in the minority by a current tally of 18 to 11 – believe they have been ignored, as have their constituents from Eastern Oregon. The only course left, they believe, is to run.

Are state troopers really going to surveil and handcuff lawmakers? How have troopers acted in this situation in past standoffs?

Oregon State Police have called absent Republican senators on their cell phones and asked them to return to the Capitol. However, troopers do not appear to have plans aggressively to track the missing lawmakers or slap handcuffs on any they find. Instead, a police spokesman said “patience and communication is and always will be our first, and preferred, option.”

Why are Republicans so insistent on and Democrats so averse to letting the people of Oregon decide this issue?

Republicans know their constituents largely oppose the carbon cap, and they suspect many unaffiliated and Democratic voters also won’t be excited about higher gas prices. They want the people to have a say.

Democrats want the system, which they say appropriately protects key Oregon industries and low-income people, to take effect as soon as possible, not wait years for voter enactment and subsequent implementation.

Also, Democrat Governor Kate Brown said she and Democrats in the Legislature were elected with a platform to pass cap-and-trade, so she wants to do that, not defer to a public vote.

Still, Senate President Peter Courtney, D-Salem, announced today that Democrats don’t have the votes to act on cap-and-trade. Here’s how it works.

The Ds can lose only two seats to get to the required 16 and even that may be up for challenge on the basis that a tax increase bill, if that is what cap-and-trade includes, then a three-fifths majority would be required. That means all 18 Ds would have to vote for it.

If it is deemed not to be a tax, then 16 votes are necessary and that’s what Courtney said is lacking.

Whatever happens, the current shenanigans will be another blot on the record of the Oregon Legislature.