PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as a Congressional press secretary in Washington, D.C., an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.
If I have told this story before, forgive me.
But, for me, the following account says volumes.
The issue occurred back in the late 1980s when I worked as press secretary for Oregon Governor Vic Atiyeh. At the time, the Atiyeh Administration was interested in doing what it could to help Oregon businesses save or create jobs.
Perhaps the help would involve aiding businesses travel through complex government permit programs.
Or, in major cases, it might involve deciding whether to offer businesses – such as, for example, Intel Corporation – tax abatement programs that would enable the job creation. Of course, though some question such offers, the good news is that, once created, new job-holders would begin paying taxes to support important public services.
The Atiyeh Administration commitment led to an interest in publishing annual job retention or creation totals. So, as press secretary, I got a report from the Oregon Economic Development Department and prepared to release the information to the public and the media.
As I contemplated the task, I lost sleep over whether the report was accurate and would stand up under scrutiny from the media. I double-checked it, then released the information. There were no questions about the accuracy of the numbers we provided.
Now, for the second part of the story, which relates to the Trump Administration and how he or it releases information. Accuracy does not appear to part of the decision about what to release or how to frame the administration’s vaunted success.
All of this made its way heavily through the recent State of the Union address, or, as I have called it, the “State of Disunion” address.
As reported by the Washington Post’s “Fact-Checker” column, here are just a few of the cases when Trump inflated numbers, reported them out of context, or told downright lies:
“We have created 5.3 million new jobs and importantly added 600,000 new manufacturing jobs.”
Trump often inflates the number of jobs created under his presidency by counting Election Day, rather than when he took the oath of office. There have been almost 4.9 million jobs created since January 2017, of which 436,000 are manufacturing jobs.
“Wages are rising at the fastest pace in decades.”
Wages rose 3.1 per cent from December 2017 to December 2018, a widely watched measure of pay that does not take inflation into account. That is the biggest increase — not adjusted for inflation — since the year that ended in December 2008.
But adjusted for inflation, wages for all workers grew 1.3 percent from December 2017 to December 2018, making the increase only the largest since August 2016, according to the Labor Department.
“Nearly 5 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps.”
About 3.6 million people (not nearly 5 million) have stopped receiving food stamps since February 2017. But experts say the improvement in the economy may not be the only reason for the decline.
Several states have rolled back recession-era waivers that allowed some adults to keep their benefits for longer periods of time without employment. Reports have also suggested immigrant families with citizen children have dropped out of the program, fearing the administration’s immigration policies. Moreover, the number of people collecting benefits has been declining since fiscal 2014.
“Unemployment has reached the lowest rate in half a century. African American, Hispanic American and Asian American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever recorded.”
This is all in the past. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate had increased to 4 per cent in January. The unemployment rate in December had no longer been at a 49-year low, but an 18-year low. Now it was merely the best since the beginning of 2018.
“More people are working now than at any time in our history — 157 million.”
This is a pretty meaningless statistic. The U.S. population is growing, so of course more people would be employed.
“We virtually ended the estate, or death, tax on small businesses, ranchers and family farms.”
This is an enormous stretch. Trump often claims he saved family farms and small businesses by gradually reducing the federal estate tax. Reducing the estate tax primarily benefits the wealthy. The estate tax rarely falls on farms or small businesses, since only those leaving behind more than $5 million pay it. According to the Tax Policy Center, nearly 5,500 estates in 2017 — out of nearly 3 million — were subject to the tax. Of those, only 80 taxable estates would be farms and small businesses.
“We have unleashed a revolution in American energy — the United States is now the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world.”
The notion that “a revolution” in energy began under the Trump administration is wrong. The United States has led the world in natural gas production since 2009. Crude oil production has been increasing rapidly since 2010, reaching record levels in August 2018.
“And now, for the first time in 65 years, we are a net exporter of energy.”
The United States has exported more energy than it has imported since 2015. Trump overstates the impact of his energy policy.
“Tens of thousands of innocent Americans are killed by lethal drugs that cross our border and flood into our cities, including meth, heroin, cocaine and fentanyl.”
Most drugs come into the United States across the southern border with Mexico. But a wall would not necessarily stanch the flow, as much of these drugs are smuggled through legal ports of entry or underground tunnels. Trump mentioned meth, heroin, cocaine and fentanyl, but leaves out that the death toll from drug abuse is mostly attributable to prescription and illicit drug overdoses, which claim more lives than cocaine and heroin overdoses combined.
“All Americans can be proud that we have more women in the workforce than ever before.”
As a raw number, this was correct in December (it dropped slightly in January), but it mainly reflects the increasing size of the U.S. population. The number of overall workers is also at a high. The more relevant figure — the labor participation rate of women — is not at a record high. It stands at 57.5 per cent, well below the 60.3 per cent reached in April 2000.
I’ll stop there, though the Post carried a number of additional examples of Trump fact-checking lapses.
I know the parallel to my situation in the Oregon Governor’s Office is a stretch, given the huge differences between a state policy on job retention or creation and federal policies governing international relations or the state of the country’s economy.
Still, if you listen to Trump, then check the accuracy of his statements, you end up believing he inflates, tells partial truths, or tells no truths. The reality appears to be that many politicians inflate or lie to be able to tell a better story. Not just Trump.
So, as always, I advocate for better leaders who tell stories straight and appeal to Americans on the basis of what they have done and the solid character traits underlining their actions.