PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as a Congressional press secretary in Washington, D.C., an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.
Okay, let me dispense with this first. It is nothing if not presumptuous for me, from Salem, Oregon, to comment on international relations under one of the most mercurial, unpredictable leaders of all time – Donald Trump.
I saw a word this morning that reminded me of Trump – bloviated. It means “to talk aimlessly and boastingly.”
Now, I might say that at least the word “boastingly” describes Trump to a T. Is he aimless?
No one knows…yet.
An analytical piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning drove all of this home to me as reporters reflected on the Trump international relations style on the eve of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore.
As Trump flew to Singapore, he stunned allies by refusing to sign a communique at the end of a Group of Seven summit meeting in Canada and castigating the summit host, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, for criticizing U.S. trade policy.
Including that recent development, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) listed six methods to describe Trump’s foreign policy approach (and the amplification in each case also is based on WSJ reporting).
Method 1: “I Alone Can Fix It
Trump made this declaration at the 2016 Republican Natonal Convention. Twenty-two months later, on May 8, 2018, he said alone at a small wooden desk in the White House basement. As television cameras zoomed in, only a few staffers from his innermost circle watched from afar in the Diplomatic Room as he dramatically signed a stack of documents withdrawing America from the seven-nation deal aimed at constraining Iran’s nuclear program.
It was a display of showmanship the president himself devised, employing stagecraft learned on reality TV, administration officials said. After two years opposing the deal, he wanted the world to see him putting pen to paper.
Method 2: Soften Up the Opposition and Keep it Off Balance
Early in the administration, even top advisers inside the White House were concerned the president was being too confrontational with North Korea, said current and former administration officials. The speech prepared for Trump to deliver to the United Nations in September sought to isolate Kim Jong Un. The president departed from the draft and turned it personal, calling Kim “rocket man” on a “suicide mission.”
Method 3: Set Deadlines—Real or Imagined—to Create Pressure
No one loves negotiating against deadlines more than Trump, who proudly uses them as weapons. “He never gives an order without a deadline,” an administration official said.
Method 4: Don’t Calm the Waters—Roil Them
Last year, Trump faced a deadline that collided with a campaign promise, his vow to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, as stipulated in a 1995 law.
The law allowed presidents to sign a waiver and postpone the move six months at a time, something every previous president did routinely. In June 2017, Trump deferred to his national-security team, said people familiar with the discussions, signing a waiver as his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, mapped out a Middle East peace plan.
Six months later, Trump met again with the team. This time, he was intent on keeping his campaign promise, even though most of his advisers, including Kushner, continued to raise concerns about the decision, these people said.
Trump asked Kushner to assess what impact the embassy move would have on his diplomatic efforts, said one of the people. Kushner “told the president it would add uncertainty to the peace process and create short-term disruption,” the person said, but “thought it would be net beneficial over the long-term.”
Method 5: Make it Personal
Trump sees his personality as key to securing foreign agreements. It is a method born of a career in real estate, current and former administration officials said, where personal chemistry can hold outsize importance.
When Chinese President XI Jinping visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in April 2017, the president shattered the careful choreography—something that took weeks of international negotiations—surprising the Chinese by immediately seeking a one-on-one meeting with Xi.
Method 6: Use “Maximum Pressure” and Be Prepared to Walk Away
Trump embraced a “maximum pressure campaign” on North Korea. Other foreign leaders haven’t been spared either.
A signature Trump tactic is to respond to every attack with a stronger counterstrike. When Beijing threatened to match his tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, he threatened to put tariffs on $100 billion.
CONCLUSION: With all due respect to the Wall Street Journal – and I mean that in the most positive sense possible – this list of Trump’s international relations approach strikes me as exactly on target, at least in the sense of description.
Will his seat of the pants, bloviated approach work? Only time will tell.