PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19^TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as a Congressional press secretary in Washington, D.C., an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

If you look at recent history, the best answer to the question in the headline? Probably not.

Moderate Republicans Ron Saxton and Chris Dudley came close to unseating Democrat incumbents in recent elections, but both lost in metropolitan Portland as Democrats – and their allies in the public employee union movement – turned out votes, even collecting late ballots in the last hours of the election and turning them in to County Clerk mailboxes at the last minute before polls closed.

Before I write about the upcoming race between Democrat incumbent Kate Brown and Republican challenger, Knute Buehler, let me provide just one point of context. I worked for the last Republican governor in Oregon 35 years ago, the late Victor Atiyeh, so, given my past and current support for this last Republican in the Governor’s Office, I am not the most dispassionate observer.

Buehler starts with a significant disadvantage. He lives in Bend, which is not exactly rural Oregon, but isn’t metro Portland either. That means he has to find a way to connect with metro voters.

He has tried to create a moderate position in the Oregon Legislature, including supporting left-of-center social positions on such issues as contraceptive insurance coverage and abortion. His views on state government finance tend to be to the right-of-center.

And he has lofted strong criticism of Governor Brown for her management of state government, including a number of problems in state agencies.

His campaign website says this:

“I love Oregon – its natural beauty, quirky culture and generous, independent-minded people. Oregon has a proud legacy—but under Kate Brown, Oregon is falling behind and too many Oregonians have an uncertain future. I’m running for Governor to help those uncertain Oregonians – those who have been left behind, left out or lost hope in the future.”

Brown, for her part, touts her credibility in Oregon by saying her platform will be “to offer opportunities for everyone to reach their full potential.”

Here is the broader website quote:

“Oregonians succeed in vibrant communities that offer opportunities for everyone to reach their full potential. A thriving Oregon is resilient and sustains the well-being of current and future generations.​”

Campaign websites can say anything. The question is which candidate will make good on general language to convince Oregonians to vote for them.

Early betting would say that Brown will win a four-year term in the Governor’s Office.

The recent past has not been positive for Republicans.

In the election of 2010, Democrat John Kitzhaber beat political newcomer Chris Dudley of whom it could be said, “he stood out in a crowd.” That’s because the former Portland Trailblazer center stood almost seven-feet tall. It didn’t matter.

Returns showed Dudley in the lead on election night, but that didn’t last when metropolitan votes came in late. Though Dudley won 29 of Oregon’s 36 counties – that alone clearly illustrates that there are “two Oregons” — he couldn’t get over the top in the Portland area, so Kitzhaber won another term.

Before Dudley, Portland lawyer Ron Saxton won the Republican nomination in 2006, again running on a moderate platform. But he lost in the general election to Democrat Ted Kulongoski.

Saxton appeared to be ahead in the closing days of the election, but his campaign suffered when opposition rose to Republican President George Bush in the fall and that translated to reduced support for Saxton.

In my view, either Saxton or Dudley would have done well as governor, especially because both favored a middle-of-the-road approach to state budgeting, including the idea that results ought to matter when it came to spending taxpayer dollars.

But, that, obviously, is all in the past. So, what matters now is how the current candidates, Brown and Buehler, connect with voters. There is little doubt but that Brown will do well in this area.

I lobbied her frequently when she served as Senate Majority Leader before she took the governor’s chair and she always came across as a friendly person who would listen and make her own decisions.

I don’t know Buehler as well, so only time will tell whether he has the personality and verve to bridge the gap between rural and urban Oregon.

Whatever happens, may the best candidate win!