WHO SHOULD GET CREDIT FOR ECONOMIC RESULTS — GOOD AND BAD?

PERSPECTIVE FROM THE 19TH HOLE: This is the title I chose for my personal blog, which is meant to give me an outlet for one of my favorite crafts – writing – plus use an image from my favorite sport, golf. Out of college, my first job was as a reporter for the Daily Astorian in Astoria, Oregon, and I went on from there to practice writing in all of my professional positions, including as a Congressional press secretary in Washington, D.C., an Oregon state government manager in Salem and Portland, press secretary for Oregon’s last Republican governor (Vic Atiyeh), and a private sector lobbyist. This blog also allows me to link another favorite pastime – politics and the art of developing public policy – to what I write.

The question in the headline is on a lot of minds these days as President Trump says one day that he deserves credit for a stock market boom, then says the next that the huge stock market slide is not his fault.

It’s been that way – taking credit or assigning debit – for years as political figures seek headlines.

Back when I was in Oregon state government, I watched as a litany of governors sought credit or assigned debit.

The best at doing neither was the governor for whom I worked, Vic Atiyeh, the last Republican governor in Oregon, now about 35 years ago. He was smart enough to know that governors of states, especially small ones like Oregon, rarely had the wherewithal to stoke the economy overall.

What he did, though, was make sure everyone knew that Oregon was open for business. Over the years, he earned the nickname “Trader Vic” for his aggressive stance in favor of enticing business from Japan to another location on the Pacific Rim – Oregon.

He succeeded mightily.

In contrast with many governors and given the power of the presidency, even with the checks and balances among the three branches of government, presidents do have the ability to prod economic growth or, in the alternative, enact policies that stem growth.

I was reminded of all this earlier this week as I read a column in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by Andy Puzder, former CEO of CKE Restaurants and a frequent contributor to the WSJ.

“Progressives,” he wrote, “are tying themselves in knots to avoid giving President Trump credit for anything positive. Take the economy. It isn’t really booming, they say, but even if it is, President Obama is the man to thank.

“The claim doesn’t add up. In 2010, the Obama White House forecast gross domestic product growth would accelerate in 2011 to 3.8 per cent” and “exceed 4 per cent per year in 2012-2014, consistent with the 4.3 per cent growth rate in the other 10 recoveries since World War II. That never happened. Actual post-recession growth averaged an anemic 2.1 per cent. And Mr. Obama’s last year in office saw measly 1.5 per cent GDP growth—hardly the springboard to our current expansion.”

Former Obama administration economists have circled the wagons in an attempt to explain away their boss’s dismal economic record as a product of structural factors rather than policy.

These claims, thus, have made it difficult for progressives to explain the 3 per cent average GDP growth rate during Mr. Trump’s first three full quarters in office. They’ve resorted, instead, to diminishing the president’s economic record by pointing to 2017’s full-year GDP growth of 2.3 per cent—relatively close to Mr. Obama’s 2.1 per cent post-recession average.

The problem for Mr. Obama’s progressive defenders is that analysts traditionally attribute the first quarter of a new presidency to the previous administration. President Bush, rather than Mr. Obama, got the blame for the negative 5.4 per cent growth during the first quarter of 2009.

“What was fair then is fair now,” Puzder contends. “The attempt to saddle Mr. Trump with responsibility for the economy’s performance during the first quarter of 2017 is disingenuous.”

A bigger problem for progressives, Puzder adds, is that Mr. Trump’s numbers easily could have been much better. Two hurricanes held GDP growth down in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, businesses were waiting to see if Congress would pass tax reform setting lower tax rates and enabling them immediately to write off 100 per cent of their investments in plant and equipment.

Puzder says “I was a CEO for 17 years; I would have waited too. This hampered fourth-quarter growth but should accelerate growth in the first quarter of 2018. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting first-quarter growth of 4 per cent.”

The jobs numbers are similarly positive. In 2017, the economy added approximately 2.1 million jobs. Progressives counter that job growth actually slowed from the 2.2 million jobs added in 2016. But job quality also matters. The Obama economy was a “part time” economy that failed to generate the full-time jobs Americans need.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of people working full time increased by 2.4 million in 2017, compared with only 1.6 million in 2016. In other words, the overall number of jobs added was lower in 2017, but only because hundreds of thousands of people left part-time for full-time jobs.

One of the recent problems is the waffling Trump has done as Wall Street took wild swings down and up. Instead, what he should focus on is regulatory relief and tax reform passed on his watch that are bringing more growth and better jobs.

“It’s a Trump Boom,” Puzder says, “but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer believes the president should thank Obama. Perhaps, but only for setting economic bar so low.”

Well, whatever you may believe, I believe Trump should follow Puzder’s advice. Claim credit where credit is due – regulatory relief and tax reform. Leave the stock market to its own unpredictable swings.

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